Regime Radar

What kind of market is this?

Nine readings of the US market, combined into one regime every day. Free to read and to cite. It describes the market and recommends nothing.

On Friday 6 November 2026, the composite US market regime reads strong risk off and has held for 2 trading days; 5 of the nine axes sit on the side of more risk.

Data as of Friday 6 November 2026

Composite regimeStrong risk offSince Thursday 5 November 2026 · 2 sessions

Centre: crisis · dashed ring: neutral · outer ring: strong risk on

What it expects next

The chance the regime changes

The regime model's own forecast · Friday 6 November 2026

Chance of a change, next 5 sessions44.9%Regime model forecast

Chance of a change tomorrow3.3%Daily switch rate in this regime

If it changesToward risk-onThe direction the model gives a change

Suggested exposureRisk off63% of a full equity position

Recession readingLow riskStep 1 of 4 on its ladder

Chance of a change, next 5 sessions44.9%0%50%100%

Every forecast and how it turned out: prediction records →

This week

What moved, session by session

CrisisStrong risk offNeutralModerate risk onStrong risk on

Readingbase 30 Oct2 Nov3 Nov4 Nov5 Nov6 NovNowChange

CompositeStrong risk offMore risk

VolatilityHighMore risk

SentimentVery bearishSteady

CreditBenignSteady

LiquidityAmpleSteady

RecessionLow riskSteady

Real yieldRestrictiveSteady

PolicyNeutralSteady

FundamentalSlowingSteady

InflationElevatedSteady

The nine readings

State, confidence and sector tilt

ReadingStateConfidenceSectors it favours and weighs on

VolatilityHigh33%Tech −180 bps · Materials −145 bps

SentimentVery bearish100%Health care +69 bps · Staples +40 bpsEnergy −221 bps · Utilities −75 bps

CreditBenign51%—

LiquidityAmple78%Materials +222 bps · Tech +210 bpsStaples −9 bps

RecessionLow risk63%Energy +53 bps · Materials +27 bpsHealth care −13 bps · Staples −8 bps

Real yieldRestrictive100%Staples +107 bps · Discretionary +67 bpsEnergy −183 bps · Tech −157 bps

PolicyNeutral100%Energy +72 bps · Utilities +52 bpsHealth care −45 bps · Staples −24 bps

FundamentalSlowing100%Real estate +6 bps · Staples +6 bpsUtilities −40 bps · Materials −25 bps

InflationElevated99%Health care +66 bps · Staples +32 bpsEnergy −100 bps · Utilities −45 bps

Today's regime in history

Strong risk off since 1986

The composite has read strong risk off on 19.4% of trading days since 3 Jan 1986, across 66 episodes. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Materials did best at +11.7% a year against the S&P 500 and Utilities did worst at −7.6%.

Share of trading days in strong risk off, by year

1986 to 2026 so far. Hover a bar for its year.

1986199820102026

Sectors against the S&P 500 in this regime

Sector fund return minus the S&P 500, a year, on strong risk off days since 1998.

Materials+11.7%

Consumer Discretionary+8.1%

Industrials+8.0%

Energy+4.4%

Financials+2.0%

Health Care−0.4%

Consumer Staples−1.6%

Communication Services−3.2%

Information Technology−4.9%

Utilities−7.6%

Real Estate−28.1%

ReadingTodayShare of daysStrongest sectorWeakest sector

VolatilityHigh9.3%Information Technology +23.2%Consumer Staples −25.1%Page →

SentimentVery bearish11.5%Information Technology +9.8%Financials −7.5%Page →

CreditBenign27.9%Energy +9.9%Materials −3.7%Page →

LiquidityAmple11.4%Financials +3.5%Consumer Staples −5.3%Page →

RecessionLow risk31.4%Information Technology +6.0%Materials −4.4%Page →

Real yieldRestrictive23.9%Energy +8.9%Information Technology −2.6%Page →

PolicyNeutral14.5%Financials +6.7%Energy −11.0%Page →

FundamentalSlowing8.8%Energy +12.0%Financials −9.9%Page →

InflationElevated18.2%Energy +10.2%Information Technology −8.3%Page →

Every regime at a glance

Each sector fund's return against the S&P 500, a year, in every state since 1998. Select a row for its page.

Beat the S&P 500Lagged it

StateTechComm.Disc.Fin.Ind.Mat.EnergyReal est.HealthStaplesUtil.

NAMED REGIMES

Stagflation———————————Goldilocks+2.5—+11.5+1.3−5.3−6.5−34.0—+8.9+2.1−2.0 Reflation+10.4−8.0−0.6−7.4−1.9−5.5+20.9−6.9−2.3−2.8−3.3 Credit crunch+3.9—+18.3−4.6−13.0−21.0+28.2—+10.0+4.1+5.9 Tight Fed, high inflation———————————Volatility shockToday+16.9−2.0+0.8+9.9+0.6−6.7+0.7−43.4−9.9−26.4−15.1 Easy money−1.1−18.8−2.1+1.2−10.2+7.8+40.4+15.8+7.3+4.0+11.1

COMPOSITE REGIME

Strong risk on−0.0+3.0−0.0+0.7−1.5−4.1−3.1−12.3−0.0−2.4−2.1 Moderate risk on+2.8−2.5−0.0−1.7+0.7−2.0+0.5−1.4+7.6+1.7+3.3 Neutral+1.5+4.8+5.6+1.1+0.8−6.6−7.9+13.2+0.5−2.0+2.6 Moderate risk off+13.6−6.7−6.5−6.8−0.9+0.3+21.7−3.4−14.7−7.5−5.3 Strong risk offToday−4.9−3.2+8.1+2.0+8.0+11.7+4.4−28.1−0.4−1.6−7.6 Crisis+25.0—+10.4+3.4−9.5−2.3−10.3—+11.7−14.3−13.6

VOLATILITY STRUCTURE

Low+1.3−0.5−1.2+0.4−1.7−6.0−1.9−12.6+0.1−2.1−2.5 Normal+1.3−0.3+2.6−0.8+0.2−2.2+0.8+2.8+3.1+0.3+3.5 Elevated−0.8−7.4+2.0−4.0+4.5+13.1+10.3−7.0−2.9+3.7−1.7 HighToday+23.2+1.4+6.1+5.8+5.2−12.6−5.5−49.3−0.7−25.1−16.2 Extreme+11.7—+11.7+5.7−14.4+11.9−4.6—+3.8−18.8−35.0

CREDIT CONDITIONS

BenignToday+0.4−4.7−3.5−1.4−2.4−3.7+9.9−1.1+3.3−0.3+5.2 Normal+9.7−0.8−2.4−3.8−0.8−4.4−5.8−8.9−2.2−6.1−3.9 Elevated+3.5−1.8+5.2+2.2+5.7−2.6+2.9−23.6−3.4−4.1−8.7 Stressed−14.6—+12.5+3.7+5.9+18.1+9.2−21.7+4.5+9.4+2.3 Distressed+22.0—+14.9+4.7−4.6+3.8−4.6—+6.3−18.4−18.1

MARKET LIQUIDITY

AmpleToday+1.2−1.6+3.4+3.5−0.4−2.0−2.0−4.0+1.9−5.3−1.0 Normal+1.8−3.2+2.2+1.4+2.2+3.0+2.1−8.6−1.5−1.7−1.5 Tight+30.1—−0.8−25.0+2.2−25.5−22.7—+11.0−13.1−28.6 Stressed+4.0—−1.6−10.9−16.6−6.5+30.0—+15.8+7.0+12.5

MARKET SENTIMENT

Very bullish+3.3−1.7+3.5+0.4−0.1−2.8−8.7+3.1+2.6+0.5+0.5 Bullish−2.0—−1.7−4.2+0.9+5.5+7.1−10.2+7.8−5.5+10.6 Neutral+3.0−1.2+1.8+1.4+1.2+2.4+4.5−10.3+1.2−3.8−1.9 Bearish+1.6+2.3+3.1+3.2+1.1−0.2+3.3−13.5−5.9−3.9−8.7 Very bearishToday+9.8−6.5+2.1−7.6+1.0−2.1+4.2−9.6+2.1−1.8−5.7

RECESSION RISK

Low riskToday+6.0−21.7+0.8−3.2−2.7−4.4+0.1−1.9+3.9−1.9−1.0 Moderate risk+2.0−11.4−2.9+1.5+5.6+0.1+7.1−22.2−0.4−4.8−2.0 Elevated risk+3.3+11.8+3.0−3.8+2.8+5.8+4.0−7.8−9.4−5.5+0.9 Recessionary−0.4+4.3+10.9+8.6+3.0+4.3−3.3−11.4+2.5−0.8−12.6

FUNDAMENTAL CYCLE

Expansion+12.9−5.5−2.6−2.1−0.8−9.4+8.5−9.7−2.1−8.2−9.3 Moderate+1.1+3.6+1.7−0.1+0.5+0.1−4.0−7.2+0.2−2.9+2.1 SlowingToday+2.3−20.0+2.5−9.9+0.3+3.1+12.0−5.7+5.1+8.6−4.7 Contraction+0.9+4.2+8.0+7.0+3.8+7.8+3.0−9.4+0.4−5.2−7.1

INFLATION ENVIRONMENT

Low+3.4+8.6+5.7+6.3+5.7+6.1+3.6−9.7−2.5−9.1−12.4 Moderate+9.9+3.7+2.5−5.7−0.8−1.9−7.9−8.9−1.2−7.2−4.5 ElevatedToday−8.3−9.2−0.2+7.6+1.4+1.2+10.2−4.1+4.6+6.2+7.5 High+9.4+1.9+10.2−14.9−7.6−10.3−6.3−6.9−3.4−0.9−10.9 Extreme+2.4−11.5−13.0−5.6+3.8+2.7+41.1−8.8+9.2+10.8+11.2

REAL INTEREST RATES

Deeply negative+5.7−24.7+0.4+20.4−10.6−7.0+32.3−4.6−6.1+9.4−2.3 Negative+1.0+0.1+3.9+5.2+0.1+4.5+9.0−0.7+1.6−8.7−13.6 Zero bound+7.3−4.7+2.8+0.4+0.2−6.3−13.6−16.2+2.8−2.8−4.9 Positive+6.4−0.7+4.9−3.1+0.2+0.2+1.4−10.2−2.4−3.7−4.4 RestrictiveToday−2.6−2.3−2.4+0.1+3.0+3.4+8.9+6.6+2.8+0.1+4.9

MONETARY POLICY

Very accommodative+1.6−16.2+4.2−0.6−2.5−7.6+10.9+1.7+4.6+7.0+4.4 Accommodative+3.7+7.8+2.0−5.7+2.0+3.7+3.3−14.5+0.5−5.5−4.4 NeutralToday+5.9−6.6+5.1+6.7−4.4−1.6−11.0+0.3+3.7−2.0−7.0 Restrictive−2.9+5.2+0.3+2.2+4.5+1.0+0.2−12.6−8.8−4.6−1.1 Very restrictive+9.6—−2.7−0.5+6.6+0.6+12.4—+2.2−5.2+0.3

How it is measured

Nine axes, each read on its own

Each axis has its own indicators, and its state comes from where today's readings sit in their own history, against percentile thresholds set for that axis. Economic releases are placed on the day they were published, so no reading uses data that was not yet out. A hidden Markov model and a gradient-boosted classifier are trained per axis as cross-checks; today's published states and confidences come from the percentile classifier alone.

One composite

The nine readings are fused by a hidden semi-Markov model. Unlike a plain Markov chain it models how long a regime tends to last, and it switches only when the evidence for a new state clears a margin, so the composite does not flip on one noisy day.

Sector tilts

For each axis and each GICS sector, the tilt is the sector's historical sensitivity to that axis: the slope of the sector's forward return on the axis score, estimated over all history up to the day, with bootstrap checks on its significance. It is shown in basis points and says what a move in the axis has meant for the sector, not what it will mean.

Each row opens that regime's own page, which search engines index. Next-session returns; ETF price returns; not investment advice.