How US sectors performed when credit conditions were stressed
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 13.1% of trading days, across 32 episodes with a typical run of 37 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Materials did best at +15.3% a year and Information Technology did worst at -17.4%, against -2.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | +15.3% | +8.6% | +18.1% | 52% | 28.6% | 1,120 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.7% | +10.6% | +12.5% | 52% | 26.9% | 1,120 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.6% | +5.6% | +9.4% | 51% | 18% | 1,120 |
| Energy XLE | +6.4% | +10.1% | +9.2% | 50% | 32.3% | 1,120 |
| Industrials XLI | +3.1% | +9.2% | +5.9% | 51% | 26.5% | 1,120 |
| Health Care XLV | +1.7% | +8.8% | +4.5% | 51% | 20.8% | 1,120 |
| Financials XLF | +0.9% | +7.9% | +3.7% | 50% | 34.3% | 1,120 |
| Utilities XLU | -0.5% | +5.7% | +2.3% | 51% | 21.7% | 1,120 |
| Information Technology XLK | -17.4% | +11.8% | -14.6% | 50% | 33.4% | 1,120 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -20.1% | +5.5% | -21.7% | 51% | 39.8% | 138 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 45 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -2.6% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 22.8% | 1,126 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -16.9% | +12.9% | -14.1% | 52% | 35.7% | 1,120 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +8.3% | +9.6% | +11.1% | 52% | 27.9% | 1,120 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +9.8% | +1% | +0.3% | 53% | 17.1% | 756 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +5.2% | +11.4% | -4.2% | 53% | 21.5% | 644 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Stressed in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were stressed?
- Materials +15.3%, Consumer Discretionary +9.7%, Consumer Staples +6.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned -2.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 13.1% of trading days since 1985, in 32 separate episodes. The typical run is 37 sessions; the longest lasted 150 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 13 Apr 2020 – 3 Jun 2020. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.