How US sectors performed when credit conditions were stressed
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 31.3% of trading days, across 376 episodes with a typical run of 3 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Utilities did best at +15.6% a year and Financials did worst at +1.7%, against +11.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +32.1% | +12.3% | +12.6% | 58% | 25.6% | 284 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +16.7% | +5% | +3.5% | 55% | 24.8% | 433 |
| Utilities XLU | +15.6% | +5.4% | +6.7% | 54% | 20.6% | 1,726 |
| Health Care XLV | +14.8% | +8.5% | +5.9% | 52% | 19.4% | 1,726 |
| Information Technology XLK | +12.5% | +12.4% | +3.6% | 53% | 29.2% | 1,726 |
| Materials XLB | +12.5% | +8.5% | +3.6% | 51% | 25.7% | 1,726 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +10.5% | +10.4% | +1.6% | 51% | 24.8% | 1,726 |
| Energy XLE | +8.9% | +10.2% | +0% | 51% | 30.3% | 1,726 |
| Industrials XLI | +8.3% | +9.4% | -0.5% | 51% | 23.3% | 1,726 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +7.7% | +5.3% | -1.2% | 51% | 16.7% | 1,726 |
| Financials XLF | +1.7% | +7.8% | -7.2% | 49% | 28.9% | 1,726 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +11.4% | +10.2% | — | 52% | 20.1% | 1,970 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +11.8% | +13.4% | +3.8% | 53% | 31.3% | 1,723 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9.1% | +9.8% | +2.1% | 51% | 25.4% | 1,655 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +3.9% | +1% | -7.5% | 52% | 14.8% | 1,408 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +0.6% | +11.7% | -11.3% | 52% | 19.1% | 1,274 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Stressed in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were stressed?
- Utilities +15.6%, Health Care +14.8%, Information Technology +12.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +11.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 31.3% of trading days since 1983, in 376 separate episodes. The typical run is 3 sessions; the longest lasted 186 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 29, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.