How US sectors performed when credit conditions were benign
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 27.9% of trading days, across 28 episodes with a typical run of 31 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +14.6% a year and Materials did worst at +1%, against +10.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +14.6% | +10.1% | +9.9% | 54% | 22.9% | 1,574 |
| Utilities XLU | +9.8% | +5.7% | +5.2% | 54% | 14.5% | 1,574 |
| Health Care XLV | +8% | +8.8% | +3.3% | 51% | 13.1% | 1,574 |
| Information Technology XLK | +5.1% | +11.8% | +0.4% | 55% | 20.2% | 1,574 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.4% | +5.6% | -0.3% | 51% | 11.6% | 1,574 |
| Financials XLF | +3.3% | +7.9% | -1.4% | 52% | 15.2% | 1,574 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +2.6% | +5.5% | -1.1% | 53% | 15.4% | 1,043 |
| Industrials XLI | +2.3% | +9.2% | -2.4% | 53% | 14.5% | 1,574 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +1.2% | +10.6% | -3.5% | 52% | 16.9% | 1,574 |
| Materials XLB | +1% | +8.6% | -3.7% | 51% | 16.6% | 1,574 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -0.1% | +11.3% | -4.7% | 52% | 16.1% | 970 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.4% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 13.2% | 2,887 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +4.4% | +12.9% | -0.3% | 55% | 17.6% | 1,574 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -1.8% | +9.6% | -6.5% | 52% | 18.5% | 1,574 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -2.8% | +1% | -7.5% | 49% | 11.3% | 1,574 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +13.6% | +11.4% | +9.1% | 55% | 19% | 1,566 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Benign in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were benign?
- Energy +14.6%, Utilities +9.8%, Health Care +8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 27.9% of trading days since 1985, in 28 separate episodes. The typical run is 31 sessions; the longest lasted 1,158 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 15 May 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.