How US sectors performed when credit conditions were benign
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 13.6% of trading days, across 104 episodes with a typical run of 11 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +29% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +3.7%, against +9.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +29% | +10.2% | +16% | 53% | 21.4% | 1,331 |
| Industrials XLI | +16.2% | +9.4% | +3.2% | 54% | 12.9% | 1,331 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +15.1% | +10.4% | +2% | 54% | 14.9% | 1,331 |
| Information Technology XLK | +14.9% | +12.4% | +1.9% | 56% | 18% | 1,331 |
| Financials XLF | +13.5% | +7.8% | +0.5% | 53% | 14.7% | 1,331 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +13.4% | +12.3% | -2.5% | 52% | 14.9% | 576 |
| Materials XLB | +13.1% | +8.5% | +0.1% | 52% | 15.5% | 1,331 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.9% | +5.4% | -6.2% | 53% | 14.3% | 1,331 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.5% | +8.5% | -7.5% | 50% | 12.9% | 1,331 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +3.7% | +5.3% | -9.3% | 52% | 11.2% | 1,331 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -5.3% | +5% | -21.3% | 51% | 14.4% | 756 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.8% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 11.6% | 1,421 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.6% | +13.4% | +0.7% | 56% | 17.1% | 1,320 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +15.2% | +9.8% | +2.1% | 52% | 16.2% | 1,270 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -10.3% | +1% | -24.9% | 49% | 11.8% | 1,231 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +13.5% | +11.7% | -1.6% | 55% | 16.9% | 1,150 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Benign in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were benign?
- Energy +29%, Industrials +16.2%, Consumer Discretionary +15.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 13.6% of trading days since 1983, in 104 separate episodes. The typical run is 11 sessions; the longest lasted 72 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Aug 26, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.