How US sectors performed when credit conditions were distressed
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 4.3% of trading days, across 14 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +33.5% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -7%, against +11.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +33.5% | +11.8% | +22% | 51% | 47.8% | 456 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +26.3% | +10.6% | +14.9% | 51% | 43.4% | 456 |
| Health Care XLV | +17.7% | +8.8% | +6.3% | 52% | 33.5% | 456 |
| Financials XLF | +16.1% | +7.9% | +4.7% | 48% | 69.5% | 456 |
| Materials XLB | +15.2% | +8.6% | +3.8% | 53% | 46.1% | 456 |
| Industrials XLI | +6.8% | +9.2% | -4.6% | 51% | 41.9% | 456 |
| Energy XLE | +6.8% | +10.1% | -4.6% | 52% | 54.4% | 456 |
| Utilities XLU | -6.7% | +5.7% | -18.1% | 49% | 40.2% | 456 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -7% | +5.6% | -18.4% | 50% | 25.9% | 456 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 15 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5.5% | — | — | — | 15 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +11.4% | +10.1% | — | 52% | 40.5% | 456 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +33.2% | +12.9% | +21.7% | 52% | 47.2% | 456 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +11.4% | +9.6% | -0% | 51% | 45.5% | 456 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +4.3% | +1% | -10% | 51% | 20.9% | 364 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +47.1% | +11.4% | +34.5% | 53% | 31.7% | 260 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Distressed in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were distressed?
- Information Technology +33.5%, Consumer Discretionary +26.3%, Health Care +17.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +11.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 4.3% of trading days since 1985, in 14 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 224 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 2 Apr 2020 – 9 Apr 2020. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.