How US sectors performed when credit conditions were distressed
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 9.1% of trading days, across 178 episodes with a typical run of 2 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Financials did best at +25.3% a year and Energy did worst at -17.4%, against +12.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials XLF | +25.3% | +7.8% | +15.4% | 52% | 70.2% | 521 |
| Information Technology XLK | +21.3% | +12.4% | +11.4% | 51% | 47.1% | 521 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +10.2% | +10.4% | +0.4% | 54% | 44.4% | 521 |
| Materials XLB | +9.7% | +8.5% | -0.2% | 54% | 46.8% | 521 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.2% | +8.5% | -1.6% | 54% | 33.6% | 521 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.5% | +9.4% | -2.3% | 54% | 43.7% | 521 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.6% | +5.3% | -5.3% | 53% | 28.3% | 521 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +3% | +5% | -16.1% | 55% | 48.8% | 119 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.5% | +5.4% | -11.4% | 53% | 38.6% | 521 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -10% | +12.3% | -20.2% | 57% | 47.5% | 115 |
| Energy XLE | -17.4% | +10.2% | -27.3% | 53% | 58.2% | 521 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +12.5% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 39.3% | 646 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +14.2% | +13.4% | +4.4% | 51% | 45.1% | 521 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +0.5% | +9.8% | -8.5% | 53% | 47.8% | 511 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -2.4% | +1% | -8.2% | 48% | 22.8% | 471 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +35.3% | +11.7% | +37.3% | 51% | 27.6% | 459 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Distressed in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were distressed?
- Financials +25.3%, Information Technology +21.3%, Consumer Discretionary +10.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +12.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 9.1% of trading days since 1983, in 178 separate episodes. The typical run is 2 sessions; the longest lasted 176 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Mar 27, 2026 – Mar 30, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.