How US sectors performed when credit conditions were normal
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 17.2% of trading days, across 177 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Health Care did best at +12.5% a year and Consumer Discretionary did worst at -0.3%, against +9.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care XLV | +12.5% | +8.5% | +6.5% | 53% | 12.8% | 1,487 |
| Information Technology XLK | +12.3% | +12.4% | +6.3% | 54% | 17.8% | 1,487 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +9.3% | +5% | +3.1% | 54% | 14.3% | 653 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.7% | +9.4% | +1.8% | 54% | 14% | 1,487 |
| Energy XLE | +6.2% | +10.2% | +0.2% | 51% | 20.8% | 1,487 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.3% | +5.3% | -1.7% | 51% | 10.6% | 1,487 |
| Materials XLB | +2.7% | +8.5% | -3.2% | 51% | 16.3% | 1,487 |
| Financials XLF | +2.5% | +7.8% | -3.5% | 51% | 15.1% | 1,487 |
| Utilities XLU | +1.5% | +5.4% | -4.5% | 52% | 13.5% | 1,487 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -0.3% | +10.4% | -6.2% | 52% | 15.2% | 1,487 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -6.9% | +12.3% | -11.1% | 52% | 16.8% | 442 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.2% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 12.5% | 1,758 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.2% | +13.4% | +7% | 55% | 17.2% | 1,482 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +4.3% | +9.8% | -2% | 54% | 17.5% | 1,479 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +6.1% | +1% | -0.3% | 52% | 11.6% | 1,448 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7.3% | +11.7% | +3% | 54% | 16.7% | 1,337 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were normal?
- Health Care +12.5%, Information Technology +12.3%, Industrials +7.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 17.2% of trading days since 1983, in 177 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 65 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Sep 1, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.