How US sectors performed when credit conditions were normal
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 33% of trading days, across 57 episodes with a typical run of 29 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +20.8% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +5%, against +10.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +20.8% | +11.8% | +9.7% | 56% | 20.3% | 2,593 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +11.5% | +11.3% | -0.8% | 55% | 23.6% | 923 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.3% | +9.2% | -0.8% | 54% | 16.3% | 2,593 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.9% | +8.8% | -2.2% | 53% | 14.9% | 2,593 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8.6% | +10.6% | -2.4% | 54% | 18.9% | 2,593 |
| Financials XLF | +7.3% | +7.9% | -3.8% | 52% | 18.7% | 2,593 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.1% | +5.7% | -3.9% | 53% | 15.4% | 2,593 |
| Materials XLB | +6.6% | +8.6% | -4.4% | 52% | 18.6% | 2,593 |
| Energy XLE | +5.3% | +10.1% | -5.8% | 52% | 23.9% | 2,593 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5% | +5.6% | -6.1% | 52% | 12.9% | 2,593 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +4.8% | +5.5% | -8.9% | 52% | 18.5% | 1,273 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.3% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 15.4% | 2,694 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +22.7% | +12.9% | +11.7% | 56% | 21.2% | 2,593 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +11.5% | +9.6% | -0.2% | 54% | 19.2% | 2,418 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.4% | +1% | -9.4% | 52% | 13.5% | 2,418 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +10.4% | +11.4% | -1.4% | 53% | 14.7% | 2,152 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were normal?
- Information Technology +20.8%, Industrials +10.3%, Health Care +8.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 33% of trading days since 1985, in 57 separate episodes. The typical run is 29 sessions; the longest lasted 366 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 8 Apr 2025 – 14 May 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.