How US sectors performed when credit conditions were elevated
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 19.3% of trading days, across 46 episodes with a typical run of 19 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Industrials did best at +21.8% a year and Utilities did worst at +7.4%, against +19.1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +62.4% | +11.3% | -1.8% | 59% | 25.5% | 155 |
| Industrials XLI | +21.8% | +9.2% | +5.7% | 53% | 19.9% | 1,268 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +21.2% | +10.6% | +5.2% | 53% | 20.9% | 1,268 |
| Information Technology XLK | +19.5% | +11.8% | +3.5% | 54% | 24.5% | 1,268 |
| Energy XLE | +18.9% | +10.1% | +2.9% | 50% | 26.8% | 1,268 |
| Financials XLF | +18.3% | +7.9% | +2.2% | 50% | 24.9% | 1,268 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +15.3% | +5.5% | -23.6% | 54% | 20.5% | 317 |
| Materials XLB | +13.5% | +8.6% | -2.6% | 51% | 23% | 1,268 |
| Health Care XLV | +12.7% | +8.8% | -3.4% | 51% | 17.8% | 1,268 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +12% | +5.6% | -4.1% | 52% | 16.1% | 1,268 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.4% | +5.7% | -8.7% | 52% | 17.5% | 1,268 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +19.1% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 18.6% | 1,338 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +22.5% | +12.9% | +7.3% | 55% | 27.8% | 1,216 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +22.7% | +9.6% | +7.4% | 53% | 22.1% | 1,083 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -3.9% | +1% | -19.3% | 52% | 15.1% | 996 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +4.2% | +11.4% | -11.5% | 52% | 16.8% | 904 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Elevated in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were elevated?
- Industrials +21.8%, Consumer Discretionary +21.2%, Information Technology +19.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +19.1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 19.3% of trading days since 1985, in 46 separate episodes. The typical run is 19 sessions; the longest lasted 236 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 27 Mar 2023 – 31 Mar 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.