How US sectors performed when credit conditions were elevated
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 28.9% of trading days, across 268 episodes with a typical run of 4 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +15.4% a year and Utilities did worst at +0.1%, against +9.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +19.6% | +12.3% | +1.4% | 55% | 22.1% | 659 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +15.4% | +10.4% | +8.6% | 53% | 21.2% | 1,914 |
| Energy XLE | +8.8% | +10.2% | +2% | 52% | 24.1% | 1,914 |
| Financials XLF | +8.7% | +7.8% | +2% | 51% | 22% | 1,914 |
| Information Technology XLK | +8.3% | +12.4% | +1.6% | 54% | 25.1% | 1,914 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.5% | +9.4% | +0.7% | 52% | 18.6% | 1,914 |
| Materials XLB | +5.7% | +8.5% | -1% | 52% | 21.4% | 1,914 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +5.4% | +5% | -12.2% | 52% | 19.3% | 793 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.1% | +5.3% | -1.7% | 52% | 14.4% | 1,914 |
| Health Care XLV | +1.8% | +8.5% | -4.9% | 51% | 16.6% | 1,914 |
| Utilities XLU | +0.1% | +5.4% | -6.7% | 51% | 16.8% | 1,914 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.7% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 15.8% | 2,674 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +14.5% | +13.4% | +7.7% | 54% | 27.7% | 1,881 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13.9% | +9.8% | +6.2% | 54% | 21% | 1,704 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +3.6% | +1% | -8.7% | 53% | 14.5% | 1,518 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +17.1% | +11.7% | +1.9% | 53% | 15.8% | 1,274 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions reads Elevated in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when credit conditions were elevated?
- Consumer Discretionary +15.4%, Energy +8.8%, Financials +8.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 28.9% of trading days since 1983, in 268 separate episodes. The typical run is 4 sessions; the longest lasted 140 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 30, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.