How US sectors performed when volatility was high
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 9.6% of trading days, across 440 episodes with a typical run of 1 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +45.6% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +8.4%, against +28.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +64.2% | +12.3% | +10.3% | 60% | 23.8% | 206 |
| Information Technology XLK | +45.6% | +12.4% | +15.1% | 55% | 33.2% | 731 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +39.6% | +10.4% | +9.1% | 56% | 30.7% | 731 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +37.4% | +5% | -22.1% | 60% | 23.8% | 247 |
| Financials XLF | +37% | +7.8% | +6.5% | 55% | 44.1% | 731 |
| Industrials XLI | +31.8% | +9.4% | +1.3% | 56% | 28.9% | 731 |
| Materials XLB | +29.3% | +8.5% | -1.2% | 54% | 30.9% | 731 |
| Health Care XLV | +25.5% | +8.5% | -5% | 54% | 23.2% | 731 |
| Energy XLE | +15% | +10.2% | -15.5% | 53% | 34.8% | 731 |
| Utilities XLU | +13.2% | +5.4% | -17.3% | 54% | 24.1% | 731 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +8.4% | +5.3% | -22% | 53% | 19% | 731 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +28.5% | +10.2% | — | 56% | 24.8% | 892 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +47.3% | +13.4% | +17% | 56% | 33.6% | 730 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +38.3% | +9.8% | +7.9% | 56% | 31.2% | 701 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -10.2% | +1% | -45% | 49% | 16.1% | 625 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +4.5% | +11.7% | -27% | 52% | 21.1% | 558 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility structure reads High in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when volatility was high?
- Information Technology +45.6%, Consumer Discretionary +39.6%, Financials +37%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +28.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 9.6% of trading days since 1983, in 440 separate episodes. The typical run is 1 sessions; the longest lasted 29 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Apr 1, 2026 – Apr 8, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.