How US sectors performed when volatility was high
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 9.3% of trading days, across 79 episodes with a typical run of 7 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +54% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +5.8%, against +29.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +61.9% | +11.3% | +1.4% | 60% | 29% | 211 |
| Information Technology XLK | +54% | +11.8% | +23.1% | 55% | 38.7% | 745 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +37% | +10.6% | +6.1% | 55% | 32% | 745 |
| Financials XLF | +36.7% | +7.9% | +5.8% | 51% | 40% | 745 |
| Industrials XLI | +36% | +9.2% | +5.2% | 54% | 29.8% | 745 |
| Health Care XLV | +30.2% | +8.8% | -0.7% | 55% | 23.9% | 745 |
| Energy XLE | +25.3% | +10.1% | -5.5% | 53% | 37% | 745 |
| Materials XLB | +18.2% | +8.6% | -12.6% | 52% | 32.1% | 745 |
| Utilities XLU | +14.6% | +5.7% | -16.2% | 52% | 24.8% | 745 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +9.2% | +5.5% | -49.3% | 52% | 26.5% | 221 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.8% | +5.6% | -25.1% | 51% | 19.9% | 745 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +29.6% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 26.7% | 838 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +50.3% | +12.9% | +20% | 55% | 41.1% | 710 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +39% | +9.6% | +7.8% | 54% | 32.2% | 684 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.3% | +1% | -31.1% | 51% | 18.1% | 580 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +6.6% | +11.4% | -36.9% | 54% | 19.8% | 438 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility structure reads High in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when volatility was high?
- Information Technology +54%, Consumer Discretionary +37%, Financials +36.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +29.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 9.3% of trading days since 1985, in 79 separate episodes. The typical run is 7 sessions; the longest lasted 57 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 5 Nov 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.