How US sectors performed when volatility was normal
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 34.6% of trading days, across 385 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +18.6% a year and Utilities did worst at +3.3%, against +7.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +18.6% | +10.2% | +11% | 53% | 22.5% | 2,352 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +17.5% | +12.3% | +2.1% | 53% | 16.6% | 701 |
| Materials XLB | +11.8% | +8.5% | +4.2% | 53% | 18.7% | 2,352 |
| Industrials XLI | +11.6% | +9.4% | +4.1% | 54% | 16.2% | 2,352 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.5% | +10.4% | +2% | 53% | 17.9% | 2,352 |
| Information Technology XLK | +8.2% | +12.4% | +0.7% | 54% | 20.7% | 2,352 |
| Financials XLF | +8.1% | +7.8% | +0.6% | 51% | 20% | 2,352 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.9% | +5.3% | -0.6% | 52% | 13.1% | 2,352 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +5.5% | +5% | -8.8% | 53% | 15.7% | 975 |
| Health Care XLV | +4.7% | +8.5% | -2.9% | 52% | 14.5% | 2,352 |
| Utilities XLU | +3.3% | +5.4% | -4.3% | 52% | 15.4% | 2,352 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +7.9% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 13.9% | 2,933 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +8% | +13.4% | +0.8% | 54% | 21.7% | 2,343 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.6% | +9.8% | -0.9% | 53% | 18.6% | 2,208 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -3.9% | +1% | -14.8% | 51% | 12.6% | 2,086 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +9.4% | +11.7% | -1% | 53% | 16.9% | 1,915 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility structure reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when volatility was normal?
- Energy +18.6%, Materials +11.8%, Industrials +11.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +7.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 34.6% of trading days since 1983, in 385 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 42 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.