How US sectors performed when volatility was normal
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 38.7% of trading days, across 179 episodes with a typical run of 12 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Utilities did best at +11.2% a year and Materials did worst at +5.5%, against +8.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities XLU | +11.2% | +5.7% | +3.5% | 53% | 14.1% | 2,553 |
| Health Care XLV | +10.7% | +8.8% | +3.1% | 52% | 13.8% | 2,553 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +10.2% | +10.6% | +2.6% | 53% | 16.6% | 2,553 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +10.2% | +5.5% | +2.8% | 54% | 15.4% | 1,205 |
| Information Technology XLK | +8.9% | +11.8% | +1.3% | 55% | 19.5% | 2,553 |
| Energy XLE | +8.5% | +10.1% | +0.8% | 52% | 21.2% | 2,553 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +7.9% | +5.6% | +0.3% | 53% | 11.7% | 2,553 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.9% | +9.2% | +0.2% | 53% | 15.3% | 2,553 |
| Financials XLF | +6.8% | +7.9% | -0.8% | 52% | 16.6% | 2,553 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +6.3% | +11.3% | -0.3% | 52% | 17% | 999 |
| Materials XLB | +5.5% | +8.6% | -2.2% | 52% | 17.5% | 2,553 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.4% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 13.1% | 3,079 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12.2% | +12.9% | +4.6% | 55% | 18.7% | 2,553 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +8.1% | +9.6% | +0.1% | 53% | 18.4% | 2,543 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.6% | +1% | -7.6% | 52% | 12.8% | 2,450 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +5.4% | +11.4% | -5.2% | 53% | 17.4% | 2,114 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility structure reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when volatility was normal?
- Utilities +11.2%, Health Care +10.7%, Consumer Discretionary +10.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 38.7% of trading days since 1985, in 179 separate episodes. The typical run is 12 sessions; the longest lasted 301 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 13 Apr 2026 – 4 Nov 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.