How US sectors performed when volatility was low
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 35.3% of trading days, across 222 episodes with a typical run of 11 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +17.6% a year and Materials did worst at +4.5%, against +10.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +17.6% | +12.4% | +7.7% | 56% | 17.8% | 2,286 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +12.7% | +10.4% | +2.9% | 53% | 14.9% | 2,286 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +12.2% | +12.3% | -4.2% | 54% | 16.8% | 720 |
| Health Care XLV | +10.9% | +8.5% | +1% | 51% | 12.4% | 2,286 |
| Industrials XLI | +8.1% | +9.4% | -1.8% | 53% | 13.5% | 2,286 |
| Energy XLE | +6.8% | +10.2% | -3.1% | 51% | 20.3% | 2,286 |
| Financials XLF | +5.8% | +7.8% | -4% | 50% | 15.2% | 2,286 |
| Utilities XLU | +5% | +5.4% | -4.9% | 53% | 13.1% | 2,286 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +4.9% | +5% | -10.4% | 51% | 14.8% | 979 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.6% | +5.3% | -5.3% | 52% | 10.6% | 2,286 |
| Materials XLB | +4.5% | +8.5% | -5.4% | 50% | 16.4% | 2,286 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.8% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 11% | 2,676 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +19.1% | +13.4% | +9.2% | 56% | 18.6% | 2,286 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +15.1% | +9.8% | +5.5% | 54% | 16.6% | 2,229 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +3.8% | +1% | -8.9% | 52% | 12.4% | 2,044 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +9.1% | +11.7% | -3.6% | 53% | 16.2% | 1,839 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility structure reads Low in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when volatility was low?
- Information Technology +17.6%, Consumer Discretionary +12.7%, Health Care +10.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 35.3% of trading days since 1983, in 222 separate episodes. The typical run is 11 sessions; the longest lasted 507 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Sep 23, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.