How US sectors performed when market sentiment was very bearish
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 13.9% of trading days, across 351 episodes with a typical run of 2 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +27.8% a year and Energy did worst at -26.1%, against +17.1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +27.8% | +12.4% | +18% | 56% | 40.4% | 969 |
| Financials XLF | +10.9% | +7.8% | +1.2% | 53% | 48.7% | 969 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +6.3% | +10.4% | -3.4% | 53% | 35.8% | 969 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6% | +5.3% | -3.7% | 52% | 23.6% | 969 |
| Health Care XLV | +3.8% | +8.5% | -5.9% | 52% | 28.5% | 969 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +3.2% | +5% | -8.7% | 55% | 30.6% | 487 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +2.1% | +12.3% | -12.3% | 52% | 30.5% | 428 |
| Industrials XLI | -0.9% | +9.4% | -10.6% | 53% | 34% | 969 |
| Utilities XLU | -6.4% | +5.4% | -16.1% | 53% | 31.9% | 969 |
| Materials XLB | -10.5% | +8.5% | -20.2% | 51% | 36.4% | 969 |
| Energy XLE | -26.1% | +10.2% | -35.8% | 49% | 46.2% | 969 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +17.1% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 32.2% | 1,117 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +21.3% | +13.4% | +12.4% | 54% | 38.9% | 966 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +2.7% | +9.8% | -5.4% | 53% | 37.3% | 951 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -4% | +1% | -17.7% | 49% | 18.3% | 870 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +6.7% | +11.7% | -8.4% | 53% | 25.8% | 840 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Very bearish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was very bearish?
- Information Technology +27.8%, Financials +10.9%, Consumer Discretionary +6.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +17.1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 13.9% of trading days since 1983, in 351 separate episodes. The typical run is 2 sessions; the longest lasted 85 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Feb 27, 2026 – Jun 30, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.