How US sectors performed when market sentiment was very bearish
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 11.5% of trading days, across 7 episodes with a typical run of 107 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +16.4% a year and Financials did worst at -0.9%, against +6.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +16.4% | +11.8% | +9.8% | 54% | 30.1% | 1,212 |
| Energy XLE | +10.8% | +10.1% | +4.2% | 54% | 35.8% | 1,212 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.7% | +8.8% | +2.1% | 51% | 19.6% | 1,212 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8.7% | +10.6% | +2.1% | 52% | 30.9% | 1,212 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.6% | +9.2% | +1% | 53% | 26.5% | 1,212 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +7.5% | +11.3% | -6.5% | 52% | 22.8% | 824 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.8% | +5.6% | -1.8% | 51% | 17.4% | 1,212 |
| Materials XLB | +4.5% | +8.6% | -2.1% | 53% | 28.9% | 1,212 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +4.4% | +5.5% | -9.6% | 51% | 20.2% | 824 |
| Utilities XLU | +0.9% | +5.7% | -5.7% | 52% | 21.3% | 1,212 |
| Financials XLF | -0.9% | +7.9% | -7.6% | 50% | 44% | 1,212 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.6% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 25% | 1,212 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12.9% | +12.9% | +6.2% | 53% | 28% | 1,212 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +11.6% | +9.6% | +5% | 54% | 31.4% | 1,212 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.5% | +1% | -4.1% | 50% | 17.9% | 1,212 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18% | +11.4% | +11.4% | 53% | 23.9% | 1,212 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Very bearish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was very bearish?
- Information Technology +16.4%, Energy +10.8%, Health Care +8.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 11.5% of trading days since 1985, in 7 separate episodes. The typical run is 107 sessions; the longest lasted 429 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 25 Feb 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.