How US sectors performed when market sentiment was bullish
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 28.7% of trading days, across 200 episodes with a typical run of 10 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +13.3% a year and Utilities did worst at +4%, against +10.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +13.3% | +10.2% | +4.3% | 52% | 18.9% | 1,966 |
| Financials XLF | +11.2% | +7.8% | +2.2% | 52% | 13.2% | 1,966 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +10.9% | +12.3% | +3.3% | 54% | 15.3% | 404 |
| Information Technology XLK | +10.3% | +12.4% | +1.2% | 55% | 14.5% | 1,966 |
| Health Care XLV | +9.5% | +8.5% | +0.5% | 52% | 11.4% | 1,966 |
| Industrials XLI | +9% | +9.4% | -0.1% | 53% | 12% | 1,966 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +7.7% | +10.4% | -1.3% | 53% | 12.7% | 1,966 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.6% | +5.3% | -4.5% | 52% | 9.5% | 1,966 |
| Materials XLB | +4.1% | +8.5% | -4.9% | 51% | 14.5% | 1,966 |
| Utilities XLU | +4% | +5.4% | -5% | 52% | 13.1% | 1,966 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -3.4% | +5% | -14.4% | 50% | 13.3% | 766 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.8% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 10.1% | 2,538 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.3% | +13.4% | +4.3% | 56% | 14.8% | 1,966 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9.6% | +9.8% | +0.3% | 54% | 15.2% | 1,964 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.3% | +1% | -8.8% | 52% | 11.6% | 1,925 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +6.8% | +11.7% | -2.6% | 53% | 15.3% | 1,827 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Bullish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was bullish?
- Energy +13.3%, Financials +11.2%, Information Technology +10.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 28.7% of trading days since 1983, in 200 separate episodes. The typical run is 10 sessions; the longest lasted 101 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jan 24, 2025 – Jan 24, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.