How US sectors performed when market sentiment was bullish
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 6% of trading days, across 18 episodes with a typical run of 28 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Utilities did best at +8.7% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -7.3%, against -1.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities XLU | +8.7% | +5.7% | +10.6% | 56% | 14.4% | 629 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +8.1% | +5.5% | -10.2% | 51% | 12.9% | 205 |
| Health Care XLV | +6% | +8.8% | +7.8% | 52% | 14.7% | 629 |
| Energy XLE | +5.2% | +10.1% | +7.1% | 51% | 21.1% | 629 |
| Materials XLB | +3.6% | +8.6% | +5.5% | 51% | 17.8% | 629 |
| Industrials XLI | -1% | +9.2% | +0.9% | 51% | 15.9% | 629 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -3.6% | +10.6% | -1.7% | 51% | 15.7% | 629 |
| Information Technology XLK | -3.8% | +11.8% | -2% | 52% | 21.7% | 629 |
| Financials XLF | -6% | +7.9% | -4.2% | 51% | 16.4% | 629 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -7.3% | +5.6% | -5.5% | 49% | 11.8% | 629 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 55 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -1.9% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 14.2% | 629 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -8.3% | +12.9% | -6.4% | 53% | 22.3% | 629 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -4.7% | +9.6% | -2.8% | 52% | 17.5% | 629 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.6% | +1% | -2.6% | 53% | 12.1% | 565 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +19.2% | +11.4% | +15.3% | 55% | 13.4% | 408 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Bullish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was bullish?
- Utilities +8.7%, Health Care +6%, Energy +5.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned -1.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 6% of trading days since 1985, in 18 separate episodes. The typical run is 28 sessions; the longest lasted 65 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 7 Oct 2019 – 22 Nov 2019. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.