How US sectors performed when market sentiment was very bullish
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 17.8% of trading days, across 15 episodes with a typical run of 39 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +7.9% a year and Energy did worst at -4.2%, against +10.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +7.9% | +10.6% | +3.5% | 53% | 23.6% | 1,383 |
| Information Technology XLK | +7.7% | +11.8% | +3.3% | 55% | 31% | 1,383 |
| Health Care XLV | +7% | +8.8% | +2.6% | 52% | 21% | 1,383 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +6.2% | +5.5% | +3.1% | 55% | 23.3% | 634 |
| Utilities XLU | +5% | +5.7% | +0.5% | 52% | 21.3% | 1,383 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.9% | +5.6% | +0.5% | 51% | 19.6% | 1,383 |
| Financials XLF | +4.8% | +7.9% | +0.3% | 50% | 26.8% | 1,383 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.3% | +9.2% | -0.1% | 53% | 22% | 1,383 |
| Materials XLB | +1.6% | +8.6% | -2.8% | 49% | 24.2% | 1,383 |
| Energy XLE | -4.2% | +10.1% | -8.7% | 49% | 28.1% | 1,383 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -10.7% | +11.3% | -1.7% | 52% | 28.5% | 349 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.4% | +10.1% | — | 52% | 20.4% | 1,881 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12.5% | +12.9% | +9.3% | 55% | 35.1% | 1,331 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -1.3% | +9.6% | -3.1% | 52% | 23.2% | 1,023 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +15.8% | +1% | +11.3% | 54% | 14.1% | 829 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +5.4% | +11.4% | +2% | 53% | 12.8% | 766 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Very bullish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was very bullish?
- Consumer Discretionary +7.9%, Information Technology +7.7%, Health Care +7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 17.8% of trading days since 1985, in 15 separate episodes. The typical run is 39 sessions; the longest lasted 1,032 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 25 Nov 2019 – 27 Mar 2020. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.