How US sectors performed when market sentiment was very bullish
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 7.8% of trading days, across 79 episodes with a typical run of 7 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +30.6% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -12.7%, against +1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +30.6% | +12.4% | +20.3% | 57% | 17.9% | 316 |
| Energy XLE | +13.5% | +10.2% | +3.3% | 53% | 17.6% | 316 |
| Financials XLF | +13% | +7.8% | +2.7% | 49% | 14.6% | 316 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +11.2% | +10.4% | +1% | 56% | 14% | 316 |
| Industrials XLI | +8.7% | +9.4% | -1.5% | 51% | 14.1% | 316 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.3% | +5.4% | -3% | 53% | 13.1% | 316 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.7% | +8.5% | -4.5% | 53% | 12.8% | 316 |
| Materials XLB | +2.5% | +8.5% | -7.7% | 50% | 16.2% | 316 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -12.7% | +5.3% | -22.9% | 46% | 10.5% | 316 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -13.4% | +5% | -24.8% | 47% | 15.4% | 130 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +12.3% | — | — | — | 48 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +1% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 13.2% | 452 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +24.5% | +13.4% | +14.2% | 57% | 19.9% | 316 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +18.4% | +9.8% | +7.3% | 55% | 16% | 311 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +7% | +1% | -4.5% | 53% | 12.3% | 286 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +25.3% | +11.7% | +14.6% | 54% | 15% | 239 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Very bullish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was very bullish?
- Information Technology +30.6%, Energy +13.5%, Financials +13%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 7.8% of trading days since 1983, in 79 separate episodes. The typical run is 7 sessions; the longest lasted 60 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Dec 4, 2023 – Dec 19, 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.