How US sectors performed when market sentiment was bearish
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 15.1% of trading days, across 250 episodes with a typical run of 3 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +23.7% a year and Financials did worst at -2.3%, against +10.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +23.7% | +10.2% | +12.3% | 53% | 31.4% | 1,278 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +20.3% | +12.3% | +1.6% | 53% | 23.3% | 589 |
| Information Technology XLK | +18.1% | +12.4% | +6.7% | 52% | 29.6% | 1,278 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +16% | +10.4% | +4.6% | 52% | 27.5% | 1,278 |
| Materials XLB | +15.8% | +8.5% | +4.4% | 52% | 27.2% | 1,278 |
| Health Care XLV | +11.5% | +8.5% | +0.2% | 51% | 19.4% | 1,278 |
| Utilities XLU | +10.3% | +5.4% | -1% | 53% | 21% | 1,278 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +9.6% | +5.3% | -1.7% | 51% | 17.4% | 1,278 |
| Industrials XLI | +9% | +9.4% | -2.4% | 53% | 24.6% | 1,278 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +6% | +5% | -14.8% | 50% | 21.8% | 620 |
| Financials XLF | -2.3% | +7.8% | -13.7% | 50% | 35% | 1,278 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.7% | +10.2% | — | 52% | 21.6% | 1,398 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.8% | +13.4% | +7.4% | 53% | 30.5% | 1,273 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +10.5% | +9.8% | +0.5% | 52% | 27.4% | 1,241 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +5.3% | +1% | -3.4% | 51% | 16.6% | 1,155 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +20% | +11.7% | +13% | 55% | 19.6% | 1,048 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Bearish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was bearish?
- Energy +23.7%, Information Technology +18.1%, Consumer Discretionary +16%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 15.1% of trading days since 1983, in 250 separate episodes. The typical run is 3 sessions; the longest lasted 86 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Jul 1, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.