How US sectors performed when market sentiment was bearish
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 17% of trading days, across 16 episodes with a typical run of 60 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +17.8% a year and Utilities did worst at +5.9%, against +14.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +17.8% | +10.1% | +3.3% | 53% | 29.1% | 1,791 |
| Financials XLF | +17.7% | +7.9% | +3.2% | 52% | 25.7% | 1,791 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +17.6% | +10.6% | +3.1% | 54% | 20.9% | 1,791 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +16.2% | +11.3% | +2.3% | 56% | 19% | 692 |
| Information Technology XLK | +16.1% | +11.8% | +1.6% | 54% | 21.7% | 1,791 |
| Industrials XLI | +15.7% | +9.2% | +1.1% | 53% | 20.3% | 1,791 |
| Materials XLB | +14.3% | +8.6% | -0.2% | 52% | 23.5% | 1,791 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +10.6% | +5.6% | -3.9% | 53% | 12.9% | 1,791 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.7% | +8.8% | -5.9% | 52% | 15.8% | 1,791 |
| Utilities XLU | +5.9% | +5.7% | -8.7% | 51% | 17.9% | 1,791 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +0.3% | +5.5% | -13.5% | 52% | 19% | 692 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +14.5% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 18.4% | 1,791 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.7% | +12.9% | +3.2% | 55% | 20.9% | 1,791 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13% | +9.6% | -1.5% | 52% | 23.8% | 1,791 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -8.8% | +1% | -23.4% | 50% | 14.6% | 1,791 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +11.3% | +11.4% | -2.4% | 54% | 17.6% | 1,773 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Bearish in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was bearish?
- Energy +17.8%, Financials +17.7%, Consumer Discretionary +17.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +14.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 17% of trading days since 1985, in 16 separate episodes. The typical run is 60 sessions; the longest lasted 464 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 27 Dec 2023 – 24 Feb 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.