How US sectors performed when market sentiment was neutral
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 34.5% of trading days, across 296 episodes with a typical run of 6 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Materials did best at +16.4% a year and Information Technology did worst at +2.8%, against +8.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +17.3% | +5% | +4.7% | 56% | 16.9% | 751 |
| Materials XLB | +16.4% | +8.5% | +10.4% | 52% | 21.6% | 2,450 |
| Energy XLE | +14.5% | +10.2% | +8.6% | 52% | 25.4% | 2,450 |
| Industrials XLI | +14.1% | +9.4% | +8.2% | 53% | 18.7% | 2,450 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +11.8% | +12.3% | -2.4% | 56% | 18.1% | 607 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +11.1% | +10.4% | +5.1% | 52% | 20.2% | 2,450 |
| Financials XLF | +8.4% | +7.8% | +2.5% | 51% | 22.9% | 2,450 |
| Utilities XLU | +8.3% | +5.4% | +2.4% | 52% | 16.4% | 2,450 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.3% | +8.5% | +2.3% | 51% | 16.4% | 2,450 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.6% | +5.3% | -0.4% | 52% | 14.2% | 2,450 |
| Information Technology XLK | +2.8% | +12.4% | -3.2% | 52% | 24.8% | 2,450 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.3% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 16.1% | 2,964 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +6.4% | +13.4% | +0.2% | 54% | 27.4% | 2,406 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +11.4% | +9.8% | +5.1% | 52% | 21.4% | 2,152 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +1% | +1% | -11.5% | 51% | 13.5% | 1,840 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.4% | +11.7% | +1.3% | 53% | 15.8% | 1,540 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was neutral?
- Materials +16.4%, Energy +14.5%, Industrials +14.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 34.5% of trading days since 1983, in 296 separate episodes. The typical run is 6 sessions; the longest lasted 107 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jan 27, 2025 – Jan 30, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.