How US sectors performed when market sentiment was neutral
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 18.9% of trading days, across 23 episodes with a typical run of 44 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +14.3% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +6%, against +9.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +43.6% | +11.3% | -1.2% | 56% | 17.9% | 188 |
| Energy XLE | +14.3% | +10.1% | +4.5% | 51% | 25.5% | 1,996 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +13.5% | +5.5% | -10.3% | 54% | 20.5% | 431 |
| Information Technology XLK | +12.8% | +11.8% | +3% | 53% | 24.6% | 1,996 |
| Materials XLB | +12.2% | +8.6% | +2.4% | 53% | 21% | 1,996 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +11.6% | +10.6% | +1.8% | 53% | 19.3% | 1,996 |
| Financials XLF | +11.2% | +7.9% | +1.4% | 52% | 21% | 1,996 |
| Health Care XLV | +11% | +8.8% | +1.2% | 52% | 17% | 1,996 |
| Industrials XLI | +11% | +9.2% | +1.2% | 53% | 18.7% | 1,996 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.9% | +5.7% | -1.9% | 53% | 19.1% | 1,996 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6% | +5.6% | -3.8% | 52% | 13.3% | 1,996 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.8% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 16.5% | 1,996 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +15.4% | +12.9% | +5.6% | 54% | 26% | 1,996 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +15.5% | +9.6% | +5.7% | 54% | 20.3% | 1,996 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.7% | +1% | -10.7% | 52% | 11.6% | 1,711 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +6.7% | +11.4% | -7.5% | 51% | 17.3% | 1,367 |
How this regime is defined
Market sentiment reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when market sentiment was neutral?
- Energy +14.3%, Information Technology +12.8%, Materials +12.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 18.9% of trading days since 1985, in 23 separate episodes. The typical run is 44 sessions; the longest lasted 265 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 29 Mar 2021 – 27 Aug 2021. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.