How US sectors performed when the composite regime read crisis
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 14.5% of trading days, across 119 episodes with a typical run of 6 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +31% a year and Utilities did worst at -4.2%, against +18.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +41.8% | +12.3% | +6.9% | 55% | 37.4% | 284 |
| Information Technology XLK | +31% | +12.4% | +16.1% | 53% | 42.5% | 1,004 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +27% | +10.4% | +12% | 54% | 38.8% | 1,004 |
| Financials XLF | +16.9% | +7.8% | +2% | 50% | 55.8% | 1,004 |
| Health Care XLV | +13.2% | +8.5% | -1.8% | 53% | 29.9% | 1,004 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +11.5% | +5% | -27.2% | 56% | 38% | 312 |
| Materials XLB | +10.6% | +8.5% | -4.3% | 53% | 40% | 1,004 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.9% | +9.4% | -10.1% | 53% | 37% | 1,004 |
| Energy XLE | +2.6% | +10.2% | -12.3% | 53% | 49.5% | 1,004 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -0.3% | +5.3% | -15.2% | 53% | 25.1% | 1,004 |
| Utilities XLU | -4.2% | +5.4% | -19.1% | 52% | 34.4% | 1,004 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +18.5% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 35.2% | 1,098 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +25.9% | +13.4% | +10.9% | 52% | 42.1% | 1,004 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +10.8% | +9.8% | -4.3% | 52% | 40.6% | 988 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +3.2% | +1% | -13.6% | 50% | 20.5% | 873 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +13.2% | +11.7% | -5.2% | 51% | 25.8% | 775 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Crisis in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read crisis?
- Information Technology +31%, Consumer Discretionary +27%, Financials +16.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +18.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 14.5% of trading days since 1983, in 119 separate episodes. The typical run is 6 sessions; the longest lasted 189 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Mar 27, 2026 – Apr 7, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.