How US sectors performed when the composite regime read crisis
Since 3 Jan 1986, the record reads this regime on 4.7% of trading days, across 14 episodes with a typical run of 10 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +32.8% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -6.5%, against +7.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +32.8% | +11.8% | +25% | 51% | 50% | 479 |
| Health Care XLV | +19.5% | +8.8% | +11.7% | 53% | 35.4% | 479 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +18.2% | +10.6% | +10.4% | 51% | 45.3% | 479 |
| Financials XLF | +11.2% | +7.9% | +3.4% | 48% | 70.5% | 479 |
| Materials XLB | +5.5% | +8.6% | -2.3% | 52% | 48.2% | 479 |
| Industrials XLI | -1.7% | +9.2% | -9.5% | 52% | 44.4% | 479 |
| Energy XLE | -2.5% | +10.1% | -10.3% | 52% | 58.5% | 479 |
| Utilities XLU | -5.8% | +5.7% | -13.6% | 50% | 43% | 479 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -6.5% | +5.6% | -14.3% | 50% | 28.9% | 479 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 34 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5.5% | — | — | — | 34 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +7.8% | +10.1% | — | 52% | 42.5% | 479 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +34.1% | +12.9% | +26.4% | 52% | 48.9% | 479 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +4.2% | +9.6% | -3.5% | 51% | 48.4% | 479 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +4.1% | +1% | -2.8% | 51% | 23.2% | 386 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +19.2% | +11.4% | +12.3% | 51% | 30.5% | 282 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Crisis in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read crisis?
- Information Technology +32.8%, Health Care +19.5%, Consumer Discretionary +18.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +7.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 4.7% of trading days since 1986, in 14 separate episodes. The typical run is 10 sessions; the longest lasted 196 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 10 Mar 2020 – 27 Apr 2020. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.