How US sectors performed when the composite regime read moderate risk on
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 22.3% of trading days, across 156 episodes with a typical run of 6 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +11.1% a year and Utilities did worst at +3.6%, against +8.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +11.1% | +10.2% | +2.9% | 51% | 21.3% | 2,304 |
| Information Technology XLK | +9.9% | +12.4% | +1.7% | 55% | 16.4% | 2,304 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.9% | +10.4% | +1.7% | 54% | 14.6% | 2,304 |
| Financials XLF | +9.8% | +7.8% | +1.6% | 51% | 15.6% | 2,304 |
| Health Care XLV | +9.4% | +8.5% | +1.2% | 52% | 12.9% | 2,304 |
| Industrials XLI | +8.5% | +9.4% | +0.2% | 53% | 13.9% | 2,304 |
| Materials XLB | +6.6% | +8.5% | -1.7% | 52% | 16.1% | 2,304 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.3% | +5.3% | -2.9% | 52% | 10.3% | 2,304 |
| Utilities XLU | +3.6% | +5.4% | -4.7% | 53% | 13.4% | 2,304 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -0.8% | +5% | -7.3% | 52% | 14.4% | 1,103 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -4.6% | +12.3% | -6.9% | 52% | 16.8% | 698 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.3% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 11.7% | 2,363 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +11.3% | +13.4% | +3% | 55% | 15.9% | 2,304 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.5% | +9.8% | -0.8% | 53% | 16.9% | 2,304 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -3.4% | +1% | -12% | 51% | 12.3% | 2,286 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +4.9% | +11.7% | -3.3% | 54% | 15.8% | 2,023 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Moderate risk on in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read moderate risk on?
- Energy +11.1%, Information Technology +9.9%, Consumer Discretionary +9.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 22.3% of trading days since 1983, in 156 separate episodes. The typical run is 6 sessions; the longest lasted 123 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Sep 23, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.