How US sectors performed when the composite regime read moderate risk on
Since 3 Jan 1986, the record reads this regime on 25.7% of trading days, across 117 episodes with a typical run of 11 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Health Care did best at +14.3% a year and Materials did worst at +4.7%, against +8.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care XLV | +14.3% | +8.8% | +7.6% | 52% | 13.7% | 1,623 |
| Utilities XLU | +10% | +5.7% | +3.3% | 53% | 14.3% | 1,623 |
| Information Technology XLK | +9.6% | +11.8% | +2.8% | 55% | 19.3% | 1,623 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +8.4% | +5.6% | +1.7% | 52% | 11.4% | 1,623 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.4% | +9.2% | +0.7% | 53% | 14.6% | 1,623 |
| Energy XLE | +7.3% | +10.1% | +0.5% | 53% | 21.5% | 1,623 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +6.7% | +10.6% | -0% | 53% | 15.9% | 1,623 |
| Financials XLF | +5% | +7.9% | -1.7% | 52% | 15.4% | 1,623 |
| Materials XLB | +4.7% | +8.6% | -2% | 53% | 16.6% | 1,623 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +3.2% | +11.3% | -2.5% | 52% | 15.7% | 816 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +3.2% | +5.5% | -1.4% | 53% | 14.3% | 934 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.2% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 12.5% | 2,046 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +11.1% | +12.9% | +4.3% | 55% | 17.1% | 1,623 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +4.6% | +9.6% | -2.6% | 54% | 18% | 1,616 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +7.3% | +1% | +0.1% | 52% | 12% | 1,616 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +11.2% | +11.4% | +3.9% | 54% | 17.3% | 1,412 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Moderate risk on in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read moderate risk on?
- Health Care +14.3%, Utilities +10%, Information Technology +9.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 25.7% of trading days since 1986, in 117 separate episodes. The typical run is 11 sessions; the longest lasted 246 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 14 Apr 2026 – 4 Nov 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.