How US sectors performed when the composite regime read moderate risk off
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 16.4% of trading days, across 177 episodes with a typical run of 4 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Materials did best at +15% a year and Utilities did worst at -1.7%, against +10.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +18.8% | +12.3% | +8.1% | 55% | 20.2% | 203 |
| Materials XLB | +15% | +8.5% | +6.9% | 53% | 21.5% | 882 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +14.6% | +10.4% | +6.5% | 54% | 19.8% | 882 |
| Industrials XLI | +12.6% | +9.4% | +4.5% | 54% | 19.6% | 882 |
| Financials XLF | +10.8% | +7.8% | +2.8% | 52% | 22.4% | 882 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +9.6% | +5.3% | +1.5% | 52% | 13.6% | 882 |
| Energy XLE | +7.2% | +10.2% | -0.9% | 51% | 23.4% | 882 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.7% | +8.5% | -1.4% | 52% | 15.6% | 882 |
| Information Technology XLK | +4.2% | +12.4% | -3.9% | 54% | 25.4% | 882 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.7% | +5.4% | -9.8% | 49% | 15.3% | 882 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -7.6% | +5% | -9.6% | 49% | 19.6% | 241 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.8% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 15.9% | 1,069 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +10.9% | +13.4% | +2.8% | 54% | 28.1% | 882 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +16.6% | +9.8% | +10.5% | 53% | 20.9% | 876 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.2% | +1% | -10.8% | 52% | 14.4% | 696 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +24.9% | +11.7% | +11.8% | 56% | 18.5% | 613 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Moderate risk off in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read moderate risk off?
- Materials +15%, Consumer Discretionary +14.6%, Industrials +12.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 16.4% of trading days since 1983, in 177 separate episodes. The typical run is 4 sessions; the longest lasted 108 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Sep 18, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.