How US sectors performed when the composite regime read moderate risk off
Since 3 Jan 1986, the record reads this regime on 15.4% of trading days, across 88 episodes with a typical run of 10 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +33.3% a year and Health Care did worst at -3.1%, against +13.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +33.3% | +10.1% | +21.7% | 52% | 29.4% | 997 |
| Information Technology XLK | +25.2% | +11.8% | +13.6% | 54% | 26.2% | 997 |
| Materials XLB | +11.9% | +8.6% | +0.3% | 50% | 24.9% | 997 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.7% | +9.2% | -0.9% | 54% | 21.1% | 997 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +6.7% | +5.5% | -3.4% | 54% | 19.4% | 431 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.3% | +5.7% | -5.3% | 52% | 18.7% | 997 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +5.1% | +10.6% | -6.5% | 51% | 24.2% | 997 |
| Financials XLF | +4.8% | +7.9% | -6.8% | 50% | 27.4% | 997 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.1% | +5.6% | -7.5% | 51% | 18% | 997 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +3.2% | +11.3% | -6.7% | 53% | 22.6% | 417 |
| Health Care XLV | -3.1% | +8.8% | -14.7% | 49% | 19.3% | 997 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +13.5% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 19.5% | 1,292 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +28.1% | +12.9% | +16.1% | 55% | 30.6% | 985 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +23.2% | +9.6% | +10.9% | 53% | 25.8% | 738 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -8.3% | +1% | -18.7% | 49% | 15.4% | 693 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18% | +11.4% | +9.9% | 54% | 18.7% | 663 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Moderate risk off in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read moderate risk off?
- Energy +33.3%, Information Technology +25.2%, Materials +11.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +13.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 15.4% of trading days since 1986, in 88 separate episodes. The typical run is 10 sessions; the longest lasted 84 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 4 Mar 2026 – 27 Mar 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.