How US sectors performed when the composite regime read neutral
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 25.5% of trading days, across 114 episodes with a typical run of 14 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +17.8% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +1.5%, against +11.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +23.2% | +12.3% | -2% | 56% | 14.6% | 501 |
| Energy XLE | +17.8% | +10.2% | +9.6% | 53% | 22.3% | 1,444 |
| Information Technology XLK | +14% | +12.4% | +5.8% | 55% | 23.6% | 1,444 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +11.5% | +5% | -13.6% | 52% | 14.6% | 566 |
| Industrials XLI | +11.1% | +9.4% | +2.9% | 54% | 15.4% | 1,444 |
| Health Care XLV | +10.8% | +8.5% | +2.6% | 50% | 15.2% | 1,444 |
| Materials XLB | +5.8% | +8.5% | -2.4% | 50% | 19.5% | 1,444 |
| Financials XLF | +4.6% | +7.8% | -3.7% | 51% | 19.9% | 1,444 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.4% | +5.4% | -3.9% | 52% | 16.2% | 1,444 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +3.5% | +10.4% | -4.8% | 50% | 18.6% | 1,444 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +1.5% | +5.3% | -6.7% | 50% | 14.4% | 1,444 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +11.5% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 14.2% | 2,286 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +15% | +13.4% | +7.1% | 55% | 26.3% | 1,395 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13.3% | +9.8% | +3.3% | 54% | 18.1% | 1,132 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +1.1% | +1% | -13% | 50% | 10.9% | 1,001 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +25% | +11.7% | +10.8% | 54% | 16.9% | 1,001 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read neutral?
- Energy +17.8%, Information Technology +14%, Industrials +11.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +11.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 25.5% of trading days since 1983, in 114 separate episodes. The typical run is 14 sessions; the longest lasted 169 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.