How US sectors performed when the composite regime read neutral
Since 3 Jan 1986, the record reads this regime on 13.2% of trading days, across 66 episodes with a typical run of 14 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +11.2% a year and Energy did worst at -2.2%, against +6.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +20.5% | +5.5% | +13.2% | 56% | 17.8% | 278 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +11.2% | +10.6% | +5.6% | 53% | 16.7% | 905 |
| Utilities XLU | +8.2% | +5.7% | +2.6% | 53% | 13.8% | 905 |
| Information Technology XLK | +7.1% | +11.8% | +1.4% | 54% | 19.1% | 905 |
| Financials XLF | +6.7% | +7.9% | +1.1% | 51% | 18.6% | 905 |
| Industrials XLI | +6.4% | +9.2% | +0.8% | 52% | 16.4% | 905 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.1% | +8.8% | +0.5% | 52% | 14% | 905 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +4.1% | +11.3% | +4.8% | 54% | 23.1% | 112 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +3.6% | +5.6% | -2% | 53% | 12% | 905 |
| Materials XLB | -0.9% | +8.6% | -6.6% | 51% | 19.3% | 905 |
| Energy XLE | -2.2% | +10.1% | -7.9% | 51% | 21.5% | 905 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.6% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 13.9% | 1,031 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12.9% | +12.9% | +7.3% | 55% | 20.2% | 905 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7% | +9.6% | +1.2% | 52% | 19.1% | 895 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +3% | +1% | -4.8% | 54% | 13.7% | 847 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +2.3% | +11.4% | -4.5% | 52% | 16.5% | 739 |
How this regime is defined
Composite regime reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the composite regime read neutral?
- Consumer Discretionary +11.2%, Utilities +8.2%, Information Technology +7.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 13.2% of trading days since 1986, in 66 separate episodes. The typical run is 14 sessions; the longest lasted 137 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 21 Mar 2025 – 3 Apr 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.