How US sectors performed when real yields were negative
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 6.6% of trading days, across 5 episodes with a typical run of 66 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +31.1% a year and Utilities did worst at +8.5%, against +22.1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +31.1% | +10.1% | +9% | 53% | 36.6% | 694 |
| Financials XLF | +27.3% | +7.9% | +5.2% | 54% | 26.5% | 694 |
| Materials XLB | +26.6% | +8.6% | +4.5% | 55% | 23.1% | 694 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +26% | +10.6% | +3.9% | 56% | 21.7% | 694 |
| Health Care XLV | +23.6% | +8.8% | +1.6% | 55% | 16.6% | 694 |
| Information Technology XLK | +23.1% | +11.8% | +1% | 53% | 24.2% | 694 |
| Industrials XLI | +22.2% | +9.2% | +0.1% | 55% | 22.3% | 694 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +22% | +11.3% | +0.1% | 56% | 24.9% | 435 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +21.2% | +5.5% | -0.7% | 55% | 25% | 435 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +13.4% | +5.6% | -8.7% | 54% | 15.5% | 694 |
| Utilities XLU | +8.5% | +5.7% | -13.6% | 52% | 18.5% | 694 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +22.1% | +10.1% | — | 57% | 19.1% | 694 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +23.8% | +12.9% | +1.8% | 55% | 23% | 694 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +26% | +9.6% | +3.9% | 54% | 25.6% | 694 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -10.6% | +1% | -32.6% | 49% | 15.1% | 694 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +3.8% | +11.4% | -18.3% | 54% | 16.7% | 694 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Negative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were negative?
- Energy +31.1%, Financials +27.3%, Materials +26.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +22.1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 6.6% of trading days since 1985, in 5 separate episodes. The typical run is 66 sessions; the longest lasted 330 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 6 Jan 2022 – 11 Apr 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.