How US sectors performed when real yields were negative
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 30.1% of trading days, across 275 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +17.3% a year and Financials did worst at -0.6%, against +14.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +34.3% | +12.3% | +3.5% | 55% | 19% | 539 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +27.9% | +5% | -1.2% | 54% | 17% | 707 |
| Information Technology XLK | +17.3% | +12.4% | +7.1% | 55% | 25.6% | 1,997 |
| Energy XLE | +14.6% | +10.2% | +4.4% | 52% | 29% | 1,997 |
| Utilities XLU | +13.2% | +5.4% | +3% | 54% | 18.8% | 1,997 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +12.7% | +10.4% | +2.5% | 54% | 22.5% | 1,997 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.5% | +9.4% | +0.3% | 54% | 20.7% | 1,997 |
| Materials XLB | +10.3% | +8.5% | +0.1% | 51% | 24.2% | 1,997 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.5% | +8.5% | -1.7% | 53% | 17.5% | 1,997 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.1% | +5.3% | -6.1% | 52% | 15.2% | 1,997 |
| Financials XLF | -0.6% | +7.8% | -10.8% | 50% | 28.9% | 1,997 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +14.5% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 18.6% | 2,658 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +19.3% | +13.4% | +9.6% | 55% | 25.7% | 1,971 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +17.4% | +9.8% | +6.1% | 54% | 24.3% | 1,805 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.3% | +1% | -14.6% | 52% | 13% | 1,701 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.3% | +11.7% | -3.2% | 52% | 18.3% | 1,508 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Negative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were negative?
- Information Technology +17.3%, Energy +14.6%, Utilities +13.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +14.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 30.1% of trading days since 1983, in 275 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 61 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Feb 12, 2026 – Feb 26, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.