How US sectors performed when real yields were deeply negative
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 0.8% of trading days, across 2 episodes with a typical run of 39 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +38.8% a year and Industrials did worst at -4.2%, against +6.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +38.8% | +10.1% | +32.3% | 49% | 30.2% | 81 |
| Financials XLF | +26.9% | +7.9% | +20.4% | 52% | 19.5% | 81 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +15.9% | +5.6% | +9.4% | 54% | 11.7% | 81 |
| Information Technology XLK | +12.2% | +11.8% | +5.7% | 52% | 19.2% | 81 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +6.8% | +10.6% | +0.4% | 56% | 18.9% | 81 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.1% | +5.7% | -2.3% | 48% | 13.6% | 81 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +1.9% | +5.5% | -4.6% | 57% | 16.6% | 81 |
| Health Care XLV | +0.3% | +8.8% | -6.1% | 53% | 11.8% | 81 |
| Materials XLB | -0.5% | +8.6% | -7% | 47% | 15.9% | 81 |
| Industrials XLI | -4.2% | +9.2% | -10.6% | 52% | 16% | 81 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -18.2% | +11.3% | -24.7% | 47% | 14.9% | 81 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.5% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 13.4% | 81 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +0.9% | +12.9% | -5.6% | 54% | 17.2% | 81 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -15.6% | +9.6% | -22% | 48% | 21.2% | 81 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -16.3% | +1% | -22.8% | 46% | 14.6% | 81 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -21% | +11.4% | -27.4% | 47% | 13% | 81 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Deeply negative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were deeply negative?
- Energy +38.8%, Financials +26.9%, Consumer Staples +15.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 0.8% of trading days since 1985, in 2 separate episodes. The typical run is 39 sessions; the longest lasted 42 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 10 Nov 2021 – 5 Jan 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.