How US sectors performed when real yields were deeply negative
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 18.1% of trading days, across 142 episodes with a typical run of 10 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +16.8% a year and Energy did worst at -21.1%, against -0.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +16.8% | +10.4% | +20.1% | 53% | 34.4% | 755 |
| Materials XLB | +8% | +8.5% | +11.2% | 52% | 35.3% | 755 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.5% | +8.5% | +9.7% | 54% | 28.9% | 755 |
| Financials XLF | +5.8% | +7.8% | +9% | 52% | 43% | 755 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -1.8% | +5.3% | +1.4% | 51% | 24.3% | 755 |
| Information Technology XLK | -4.3% | +12.4% | -1.1% | 50% | 41.3% | 755 |
| Industrials XLI | -6.3% | +9.4% | -3.1% | 53% | 33.7% | 755 |
| Utilities XLU | -19.3% | +5.4% | -16.1% | 50% | 31.6% | 755 |
| Energy XLE | -21.1% | +10.2% | -17.9% | 49% | 42.3% | 755 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -43.1% | +5% | -18.3% | 53% | 39.8% | 197 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -55.7% | +12.3% | -4.9% | 51% | 40% | 137 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -0.2% | +10.2% | — | 51% | 27.4% | 1,107 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -7.9% | +13.4% | -4.7% | 51% | 42.9% | 755 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -14.8% | +9.8% | -8.1% | 49% | 35.2% | 739 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +32.5% | +1% | +34.2% | 57% | 20.9% | 553 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +28.4% | +11.7% | +38.4% | 55% | 24.8% | 429 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Deeply negative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were deeply negative?
- Consumer Discretionary +16.8%, Materials +8%, Health Care +6.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned -0.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 18.1% of trading days since 1983, in 142 separate episodes. The typical run is 10 sessions; the longest lasted 69 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Feb 27, 2026 – Mar 10, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.