How US sectors performed when real yields were restrictive
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 5.6% of trading days, across 54 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Financials did best at +21.6% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -10.2%, against -1.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials XLF | +21.6% | +7.8% | +22.2% | 51% | 26% | 233 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +10.2% | +10.4% | +10.8% | 53% | 17% | 233 |
| Industrials XLI | +9.3% | +9.4% | +9.9% | 55% | 18.4% | 233 |
| Energy XLE | +5.6% | +10.2% | +6.2% | 50% | 25.2% | 233 |
| Materials XLB | +5% | +8.5% | +5.6% | 50% | 21.3% | 233 |
| Utilities XLU | +3.5% | +5.4% | +4.1% | 52% | 16.1% | 233 |
| Health Care XLV | -2.9% | +8.5% | -2.3% | 48% | 15% | 233 |
| Information Technology XLK | -8.1% | +12.4% | -7.5% | 54% | 20.6% | 233 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -10.2% | +5.3% | -9.5% | 49% | 13.1% | 233 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -44% | +5% | -8.1% | 48% | 16.9% | 73 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +12.3% | — | — | — | 18 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -1.4% | +10.2% | — | 52% | 15.3% | 347 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -1.3% | +13.4% | +1.9% | 52% | 20.6% | 224 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.3% | +9.8% | +12.1% | 53% | 18.1% | 219 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -19.6% | +1% | -17.1% | 44% | 14.2% | 202 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +1% | +11.7% | +3.5% | 52% | 16.7% | 183 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Restrictive in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were restrictive?
- Financials +21.6%, Consumer Discretionary +10.2%, Industrials +9.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned -1.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 5.6% of trading days since 1983, in 54 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 55 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jan 10, 2025 – Jan 13, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.