How US sectors performed when real yields were restrictive
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 23.9% of trading days, across 15 episodes with a typical run of 71 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +10.1% a year and Information Technology did worst at -1.4%, against +6.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +24.4% | +5.5% | +6.6% | 53% | 16.8% | 379 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +15.5% | +11.3% | -2.3% | 55% | 17.2% | 379 |
| Energy XLE | +10.1% | +10.1% | +8.9% | 51% | 29.6% | 2,026 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.1% | +5.7% | +4.9% | 51% | 22.5% | 2,026 |
| Materials XLB | +4.7% | +8.6% | +3.4% | 51% | 26.1% | 2,026 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.2% | +9.2% | +3% | 53% | 22.2% | 2,026 |
| Health Care XLV | +4% | +8.8% | +2.8% | 50% | 20.6% | 2,026 |
| Financials XLF | +1.3% | +7.9% | +0.1% | 50% | 29.5% | 2,026 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +1.3% | +5.6% | +0.1% | 50% | 17.9% | 2,026 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -1.2% | +10.6% | -2.4% | 50% | 25.3% | 2,026 |
| Information Technology XLK | -1.4% | +11.8% | -2.6% | 52% | 31.6% | 2,026 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.3% | +10.1% | — | 52% | 21.7% | 2,524 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +1.4% | +12.9% | +1% | 52% | 34.3% | 1,974 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +1.4% | +9.6% | +2.5% | 52% | 25.6% | 1,666 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +13.3% | +1% | +7.4% | 53% | 12.3% | 1,287 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18.2% | +11.4% | +12.4% | 55% | 22.5% | 941 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Restrictive in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were restrictive?
- Energy +10.1%, Utilities +6.1%, Materials +4.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 23.9% of trading days since 1985, in 15 separate episodes. The typical run is 71 sessions; the longest lasted 999 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 26 May 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.