How US sectors performed when real yields were zero bound
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 25.6% of trading days, across 274 episodes with a typical run of 7 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +16.9% a year and Materials did worst at +7.4%, against +14.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +16.9% | +12.4% | +4.8% | 55% | 23% | 2,217 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +16.2% | +12.3% | -1.6% | 56% | 21.4% | 642 |
| Industrials XLI | +13% | +9.4% | +0.8% | 53% | 18.1% | 2,217 |
| Energy XLE | +12.9% | +10.2% | +0.7% | 53% | 25.2% | 2,217 |
| Health Care XLV | +12.8% | +8.5% | +0.7% | 51% | 14.8% | 2,217 |
| Utilities XLU | +12.5% | +5.4% | +0.3% | 54% | 16.1% | 2,217 |
| Financials XLF | +11.1% | +7.8% | -1.1% | 51% | 23.3% | 2,217 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +8.5% | +5.3% | -3.7% | 52% | 12.9% | 2,217 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8% | +10.4% | -4.2% | 52% | 20.2% | 2,217 |
| Materials XLB | +7.4% | +8.5% | -4.8% | 52% | 20.6% | 2,217 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +5.6% | +5% | -9.8% | 52% | 18.4% | 892 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +14.9% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 15.8% | 2,417 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.3% | +13.4% | +4.6% | 56% | 24.1% | 2,211 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +14.4% | +9.8% | +1.5% | 54% | 21% | 2,189 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -1.6% | +1% | -15.3% | 50% | 12.5% | 2,015 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +8.7% | +11.7% | -4.6% | 53% | 16.9% | 1,857 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Zero bound in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were zero bound?
- Information Technology +16.9%, Industrials +13%, Energy +12.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +14.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 25.6% of trading days since 1983, in 274 separate episodes. The typical run is 7 sessions; the longest lasted 66 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen May 27, 2026 – Jul 2, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.