How US sectors performed when real yields were positive
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 27.1% of trading days, across 22 episodes with a typical run of 82 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +16.4% a year and Utilities did worst at +5.7%, against +10.1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +16.4% | +11.8% | +6.4% | 55% | 24.6% | 2,854 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +15% | +10.6% | +4.9% | 53% | 22.3% | 2,854 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +13.2% | +11.3% | -0.7% | 53% | 20.9% | 938 |
| Energy XLE | +11.4% | +10.1% | +1.4% | 53% | 26.3% | 2,854 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.3% | +9.2% | +0.2% | 53% | 20.5% | 2,854 |
| Materials XLB | +10.2% | +8.6% | +0.2% | 51% | 22.8% | 2,854 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.6% | +8.8% | -2.4% | 51% | 16.3% | 2,854 |
| Financials XLF | +7% | +7.9% | -3.1% | 51% | 29.9% | 2,854 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.4% | +5.6% | -3.7% | 52% | 13.6% | 2,854 |
| Utilities XLU | +5.7% | +5.7% | -4.4% | 53% | 16.9% | 2,854 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +0.8% | +5.5% | -10.2% | 51% | 18.4% | 1,155 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.1% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 18.1% | 2,854 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +16.6% | +12.9% | +6.5% | 54% | 25% | 2,854 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +12.1% | +9.6% | +2% | 53% | 23.1% | 2,854 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -2.1% | +1% | -12.8% | 51% | 13.8% | 2,690 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18.9% | +11.4% | +9.5% | 54% | 18.1% | 2,454 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Positive in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were positive?
- Information Technology +16.4%, Consumer Discretionary +15%, Energy +11.4%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 27.1% of trading days since 1985, in 22 separate episodes. The typical run is 82 sessions; the longest lasted 642 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 12 Aug 2025 – 22 May 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.