How US sectors performed when real yields were positive
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 20.6% of trading days, across 188 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +15.8% a year and Utilities did worst at -1.4%, against +6.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +15.8% | +10.2% | +7.4% | 52% | 25.1% | 1,777 |
| Financials XLF | +12.2% | +7.8% | +3.8% | 51% | 25.3% | 1,777 |
| Information Technology XLK | +11% | +12.4% | +2.7% | 53% | 22% | 1,777 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.4% | +9.4% | +2.1% | 52% | 18.1% | 1,777 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +8.4% | +12.3% | -5.7% | 53% | 20.2% | 740 |
| Materials XLB | +8.4% | +8.5% | +0.1% | 52% | 20.1% | 1,777 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8.1% | +10.4% | -0.3% | 52% | 20% | 1,777 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +7.6% | +5.3% | -0.7% | 51% | 13.3% | 1,777 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.4% | +8.5% | -2.9% | 51% | 15.9% | 1,777 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +1% | +5% | -11.8% | 52% | 18.2% | 885 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.4% | +5.4% | -9.8% | 50% | 16.7% | 1,777 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.6% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 15.8% | 1,940 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12.7% | +13.4% | +4.9% | 54% | 23.2% | 1,766 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +6.8% | +9.8% | -1% | 52% | 21.1% | 1,667 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -3.4% | +1% | -11.4% | 51% | 15% | 1,605 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +11.3% | +11.7% | +2.3% | 54% | 17.8% | 1,517 |
How this regime is defined
Real interest rates reads Positive in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when real yields were positive?
- Energy +15.8%, Financials +12.2%, Information Technology +11%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 20.6% of trading days since 1983, in 188 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 60 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Jul 6, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.