How US sectors performed in easy-money conditions
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 7.4% of trading days, across 61 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +15.9% a year and Financials did worst at -2.3%, against +6.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +28.6% | +12.3% | +0.8% | 54% | 37.8% | 127 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +16% | +5% | -18.8% | 57% | 42.9% | 159 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +15.9% | +10.4% | +9.6% | 54% | 29.7% | 816 |
| Information Technology XLK | +14% | +12.4% | +7.7% | 52% | 31.2% | 816 |
| Health Care XLV | +11.7% | +8.5% | +5.4% | 53% | 24.7% | 816 |
| Energy XLE | +6% | +10.2% | -0.4% | 51% | 42% | 816 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.9% | +5.3% | -1.4% | 53% | 20.7% | 816 |
| Materials XLB | +3.3% | +8.5% | -3% | 52% | 32.9% | 816 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.2% | +5.4% | -7.5% | 53% | 28.2% | 816 |
| Industrials XLI | -2% | +9.4% | -8.3% | 52% | 30.2% | 816 |
| Financials XLF | -2.3% | +7.8% | -8.6% | 52% | 41.3% | 816 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.3% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 28.4% | 816 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +19% | +13.4% | +12.7% | 54% | 29.9% | 816 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +3.4% | +9.8% | -2.9% | 52% | 32.7% | 816 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.7% | +1% | -5% | 52% | 17.9% | 802 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -9.5% | +11.7% | -16.2% | 50% | 22.7% | 754 |
How this regime is defined
Fed policy reads very accommodative while real yields read negative or deeply negative.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best in easy-money conditions?
- Consumer Discretionary +15.9%, Information Technology +14%, Health Care +11.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 7.4% of trading days since 1983, in 61 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 69 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Nov 26, 2021 – Dec 31, 2021. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.