How US sectors performed in easy-money conditions
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 2.6% of trading days, across 3 episodes with a typical run of 22 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +53.8% a year and Industrials did worst at +3.2%, against +13.3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +53.8% | +10.1% | +40.4% | 54% | 28.6% | 278 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +29% | +5.5% | +15.8% | 57% | 19.4% | 256 |
| Utilities XLU | +24.4% | +5.7% | +11.1% | 53% | 16.3% | 278 |
| Materials XLB | +21.2% | +8.6% | +7.8% | 53% | 19.1% | 278 |
| Health Care XLV | +20.6% | +8.8% | +7.3% | 55% | 14.1% | 278 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +17.3% | +5.6% | +4% | 56% | 12.7% | 278 |
| Financials XLF | +14.5% | +7.9% | +1.2% | 53% | 21.5% | 278 |
| Information Technology XLK | +12.2% | +11.8% | -1.1% | 51% | 21.9% | 278 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +11.2% | +10.6% | -2.1% | 55% | 22.3% | 278 |
| Industrials XLI | +3.2% | +9.2% | -10.2% | 53% | 16.8% | 278 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -5.6% | +11.3% | -18.8% | 49% | 19.6% | 256 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +13.3% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 15.9% | 278 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +9.4% | +12.9% | -3.9% | 54% | 21.2% | 278 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -1% | +9.6% | -14.4% | 49% | 23% | 278 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -9.4% | +1% | -22.8% | 47% | 15.3% | 278 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18.9% | +11.4% | +5.5% | 56% | 14.1% | 278 |
How this regime is defined
Fed policy reads very accommodative while real yields read negative or deeply negative.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best in easy-money conditions?
- Energy +53.8%, Utilities +24.4%, Materials +21.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +13.3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 2.6% of trading days since 1985, in 3 separate episodes. The typical run is 22 sessions; the longest lasted 251 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 15 Apr 2021 – 11 Apr 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.