How US sectors performed during a credit crunch
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 7.1% of trading days, across 168 episodes with a typical run of 2 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +46.4% a year and Energy did worst at -0.3%, against +31.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +77.8% | +12.3% | +20.7% | 60% | 48.6% | 105 |
| Information Technology XLK | +46.4% | +12.4% | +19.3% | 53% | 46.4% | 584 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +33.3% | +10.4% | +6.2% | 53% | 43.5% | 584 |
| Financials XLF | +31.8% | +7.8% | +4.7% | 51% | 69% | 584 |
| Health Care XLV | +26% | +8.5% | -1% | 52% | 32.5% | 584 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +20.4% | +5.3% | -6.6% | 54% | 27.6% | 584 |
| Materials XLB | +18.6% | +8.5% | -8.5% | 54% | 45.9% | 584 |
| Industrials XLI | +16.5% | +9.4% | -10.6% | 54% | 42.2% | 584 |
| Utilities XLU | +5.7% | +5.4% | -21.4% | 54% | 37.3% | 584 |
| Energy XLE | -0.3% | +10.2% | -27.4% | 54% | 58.2% | 584 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -9.9% | +5% | -52.7% | 53% | 51.7% | 131 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +31.6% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 40.5% | 622 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +50.5% | +13.4% | +23.4% | 54% | 45.5% | 584 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +14.1% | +9.8% | -11.3% | 54% | 46.7% | 577 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -4% | +1% | -17.4% | 48% | 21.6% | 547 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +0.3% | +11.7% | -14% | 48% | 27.8% | 534 |
How this regime is defined
Credit conditions read stressed or distressed while liquidity reads stressed.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best during a credit crunch?
- Information Technology +46.4%, Consumer Discretionary +33.3%, Financials +31.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +31.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 7.1% of trading days since 1983, in 168 separate episodes. The typical run is 2 sessions; the longest lasted 207 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Apr 4, 2025 – Apr 9, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.