How US sectors performed during reflation
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 19.2% of trading days, across 241 episodes with a typical run of 6 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +15.9% a year and Health Care did worst at -4.6%, against +6.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +15.9% | +10.2% | +13.5% | 52% | 23.5% | 1,398 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +12.6% | +12.3% | +0% | 53% | 18.9% | 477 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.5% | +5.3% | +4.1% | 51% | 15.2% | 1,398 |
| Materials XLB | +4.5% | +8.5% | +2.1% | 49% | 20.6% | 1,398 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.2% | +5.4% | +1.8% | 52% | 16.8% | 1,398 |
| Industrials XLI | +3.5% | +9.4% | +1.1% | 51% | 16.6% | 1,398 |
| Information Technology XLK | +2.8% | +12.4% | +0.4% | 55% | 24.2% | 1,398 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +2.7% | +10.4% | +0.3% | 52% | 20.4% | 1,398 |
| Financials XLF | -0.5% | +7.8% | -2.8% | 50% | 21% | 1,398 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -1.2% | +5% | -15.1% | 53% | 16.4% | 645 |
| Health Care XLV | -4.6% | +8.5% | -7% | 47% | 16.4% | 1,398 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.7% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 15.6% | 1,847 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +5.6% | +13.4% | +3.9% | 55% | 26.7% | 1,354 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -7.7% | +9.8% | -8.4% | 50% | 19.8% | 1,155 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -8.6% | +1% | -16.5% | 50% | 12.5% | 1,051 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.2% | +11.7% | +3.6% | 55% | 17.6% | 911 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation reads high or extreme while the business cycle reads expansion.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best during reflation?
- Energy +15.9%, Consumer Staples +6.5%, Materials +4.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 19.2% of trading days since 1983, in 241 separate episodes. The typical run is 6 sessions; the longest lasted 61 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.