How US sectors performed during reflation
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 5.2% of trading days, across 1 episodes with a typical run of 544 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +27% a year and Financials did worst at -1.3%, against +6.1% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +27% | +10.1% | +20.9% | 53% | 31% | 544 |
| Information Technology XLK | +16.4% | +11.8% | +10.4% | 51% | 26.2% | 544 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +5.5% | +10.6% | -0.6% | 52% | 27% | 544 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.2% | +9.2% | -1.9% | 51% | 18.7% | 544 |
| Health Care XLV | +3.7% | +8.8% | -2.3% | 52% | 15.5% | 544 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +3.2% | +5.6% | -2.8% | 53% | 14.3% | 544 |
| Utilities XLU | +2.7% | +5.7% | -3.3% | 51% | 18.3% | 544 |
| Materials XLB | +0.5% | +8.6% | -5.5% | 51% | 21.2% | 544 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -0.9% | +5.5% | -6.9% | 52% | 21.6% | 544 |
| Financials XLF | -1.3% | +7.9% | -7.4% | 49% | 21.4% | 544 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -1.9% | +11.3% | -8% | 50% | 25% | 544 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.1% | +10.1% | — | 51% | 19.1% | 544 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +11.2% | +12.9% | +5.1% | 52% | 25.3% | 544 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -2.2% | +9.6% | -8.2% | 51% | 24% | 544 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -11.7% | +1% | -17.8% | 48% | 18% | 544 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +3.9% | +11.4% | -2.2% | 52% | 14.3% | 544 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation reads high or extreme while the business cycle reads expansion.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best during reflation?
- Energy +27%, Information Technology +16.4%, Consumer Discretionary +5.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.1%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 5.2% of trading days since 1985, in 1 separate episodes. The typical run is 544 sessions; the longest lasted 544 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 13 May 2021 – 12 Jul 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.