How US sectors performed when the Fed was very tight and inflation high
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 0% of trading days — too few sessions to publish sector figures yet.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | — | +11.8% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | — | +10.6% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Financials XLF | — | +7.9% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Industrials XLI | — | +9.2% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Materials XLB | — | +8.6% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Energy XLE | — | +10.1% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5.5% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Health Care XLV | — | +8.8% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | — | +5.6% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Utilities XLU | — | +5.7% | — | — | — | 0 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | — | +10.1% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | — | +12.9% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | — | +9.6% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | — | +1% | — | — | — | 0 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | — | +11.4% | — | — | — | 0 |
How this regime is defined
Fed policy reads very restrictive while inflation reads high or extreme.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 0% of trading days since 1985, in 0 separate episodes. The typical run is — sessions; the longest lasted — sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Not in the record
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.