How US sectors performed in a goldilocks market
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 6.6% of trading days, across 66 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +34.9% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +11.3%, against +25.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +34.9% | +12.4% | +11% | 58% | 17.9% | 681 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +34.4% | +10.4% | +10.5% | 56% | 15.4% | 681 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +25.5% | +5% | -1.2% | 55% | 15.7% | 391 |
| Industrials XLI | +25.3% | +9.4% | +1.5% | 58% | 13.3% | 681 |
| Financials XLF | +22.5% | +7.8% | -1.3% | 53% | 13.4% | 681 |
| Health Care XLV | +17.6% | +8.5% | -6.2% | 54% | 11.6% | 681 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +17.4% | +12.3% | -14.1% | 54% | 17.3% | 340 |
| Materials XLB | +14.7% | +8.5% | -9.1% | 54% | 16% | 681 |
| Utilities XLU | +13.2% | +5.4% | -10.7% | 54% | 13.9% | 681 |
| Energy XLE | +12% | +10.2% | -11.9% | 52% | 22% | 681 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +11.3% | +5.3% | -12.5% | 53% | 10.3% | 681 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +25.9% | +10.2% | — | 59% | 10.9% | 708 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +31% | +13.4% | +7.2% | 58% | 16.8% | 681 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +28.2% | +9.8% | +5% | 57% | 16.8% | 671 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +7.6% | +1% | -14.8% | 53% | 12.2% | 660 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +1.4% | +11.7% | -22.1% | 53% | 16.1% | 651 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation reads low or moderate, the business cycle expansion, and volatility low or normal.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best in a goldilocks market?
- Information Technology +34.9%, Consumer Discretionary +34.4%, Industrials +25.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +25.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 6.6% of trading days since 1983, in 66 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 57 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 31, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.