How US sectors performed in a goldilocks market
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 2.6% of trading days, across 12 episodes with a typical run of 7 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +2% a year and Energy did worst at -43.4%, against +2.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +2% | +10.6% | +11.5% | 51% | 14.6% | 204 |
| Health Care XLV | -0.6% | +8.8% | +8.9% | 54% | 15.6% | 204 |
| Information Technology XLK | -7% | +11.8% | +2.5% | 51% | 16.6% | 204 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -7.4% | +5.6% | +2% | 48% | 12% | 204 |
| Financials XLF | -8.2% | +7.9% | +1.3% | 48% | 14.9% | 204 |
| Utilities XLU | -11.4% | +5.7% | -2% | 52% | 16.6% | 204 |
| Industrials XLI | -14.8% | +9.2% | -5.3% | 47% | 13.6% | 204 |
| Materials XLB | -15.9% | +8.6% | -6.5% | 47% | 15.4% | 204 |
| Energy XLE | -43.4% | +10.1% | -34% | 42% | 21.2% | 204 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 2 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5.5% | — | — | — | 45 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +2.4% | +10.1% | — | 49% | 12.8% | 272 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +3.2% | +12.9% | +12.7% | 53% | 16.5% | 204 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -9.8% | +9.6% | -3.9% | 50% | 15% | 194 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -6.8% | +1% | -0.9% | 52% | 15.6% | 194 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -21.2% | +11.4% | -15.4% | 44% | 13.9% | 194 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation reads low or moderate, the business cycle expansion, and volatility low or normal.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best in a goldilocks market?
- Consumer Discretionary +2%, Health Care -0.6%, Information Technology -7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +2.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 2.6% of trading days since 1985, in 12 separate episodes. The typical run is 7 sessions; the longest lasted 147 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 10 May 2021 – 11 May 2021. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.