How US sectors performed during stagflation
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 5.9% of trading days, across 97 episodes with a typical run of 4 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Industrials did best at +33.3% a year and Utilities did worst at +1.5%, against +17.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials XLI | +33.3% | +9.4% | +15.9% | 55% | 22.8% | 474 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +26.8% | +12.3% | +18.4% | 61% | 21.6% | 83 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +23.2% | +10.4% | +5.8% | 54% | 21.1% | 474 |
| Information Technology XLK | +22% | +12.4% | +4.7% | 58% | 21.9% | 474 |
| Materials XLB | +20.1% | +8.5% | +2.7% | 55% | 24.6% | 474 |
| Financials XLF | +20.1% | +7.8% | +2.7% | 50% | 31.5% | 474 |
| Energy XLE | +18.6% | +10.2% | +1.2% | 53% | 28.7% | 474 |
| Health Care XLV | +17.1% | +8.5% | -0.2% | 54% | 15.6% | 474 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +14.7% | +5.3% | -2.7% | 57% | 12.7% | 474 |
| Utilities XLU | +1.5% | +5.4% | -15.9% | 50% | 15.6% | 474 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -16.6% | +5% | -26% | 49% | 21.3% | 87 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +17.4% | +10.2% | — | 58% | 18% | 474 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +31.6% | +13.4% | +14.2% | 58% | 22.7% | 474 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13% | +9.8% | -4.3% | 53% | 24.6% | 474 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -19.9% | +1% | -33.2% | 49% | 16.4% | 442 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +27.6% | +11.7% | +13.5% | 57% | 18.8% | 432 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation reads high or extreme while the business cycle reads contraction.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best during stagflation?
- Industrials +33.3%, Consumer Discretionary +23.2%, Information Technology +22%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +17.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 5.9% of trading days since 1983, in 97 separate episodes. The typical run is 4 sessions; the longest lasted 47 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen May 1, 2025 – May 2, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.