How US sectors performed during a volatility shock
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 5.5% of trading days, across 30 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +57.6% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +14.4%, against +40.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +72.6% | +11.3% | -2% | 62% | 29.8% | 206 |
| Information Technology XLK | +57.6% | +11.8% | +16.9% | 56% | 38.2% | 579 |
| Financials XLF | +50.7% | +7.9% | +9.9% | 51% | 63.7% | 579 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +41.6% | +10.6% | +0.8% | 54% | 40.1% | 579 |
| Energy XLE | +41.5% | +10.1% | +0.7% | 55% | 51.8% | 579 |
| Industrials XLI | +41.4% | +9.2% | +0.6% | 54% | 37.9% | 579 |
| Materials XLB | +34.1% | +8.6% | -6.7% | 54% | 42.2% | 579 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +31.3% | +5.5% | -43.4% | 52% | 27% | 206 |
| Health Care XLV | +30.9% | +8.8% | -9.9% | 54% | 27.1% | 579 |
| Utilities XLU | +25.7% | +5.7% | -15.1% | 54% | 30.1% | 579 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +14.4% | +5.6% | -26.4% | 55% | 22.8% | 579 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +40.8% | +10.1% | — | 56% | 36.8% | 579 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +51.8% | +12.9% | +11% | 55% | 37% | 579 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +44.5% | +9.6% | +3.8% | 55% | 44% | 579 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -11.1% | +1% | -51.9% | 47% | 21% | 579 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +8.5% | +11.4% | -31.4% | 52% | 25.2% | 570 |
How this regime is defined
Volatility reads high or extreme while market sentiment reads bearish or very bearish.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best during a volatility shock?
- Information Technology +57.6%, Financials +50.7%, Consumer Discretionary +41.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +40.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 5.5% of trading days since 1985, in 30 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 196 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 5 Nov 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.