How US sectors performed when inflation was high
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 29.8% of trading days, across 497 episodes with a typical run of 5 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +9.4% a year and Utilities did worst at -3.6%, against +5.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +14.7% | +12.3% | +2.2% | 55% | 17.3% | 494 |
| Energy XLE | +9.4% | +10.2% | +5.8% | 52% | 24.9% | 2,030 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.1% | +10.4% | +5.5% | 53% | 20.8% | 2,030 |
| Materials XLB | +8.6% | +8.5% | +5% | 51% | 22% | 2,030 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +7.3% | +5.3% | +3.7% | 52% | 14.7% | 2,030 |
| Industrials XLI | +6.7% | +9.4% | +3.1% | 52% | 18.7% | 2,030 |
| Information Technology XLK | +3% | +12.4% | -0.6% | 54% | 24.7% | 2,030 |
| Financials XLF | +2.7% | +7.8% | -0.9% | 49% | 24.5% | 2,030 |
| Health Care XLV | +1.3% | +8.5% | -2.3% | 49% | 16.9% | 2,030 |
| Utilities XLU | -3.6% | +5.4% | -7.2% | 50% | 18.2% | 2,030 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -8.9% | +5% | -20.2% | 53% | 16.7% | 692 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +5.8% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 16.4% | 2,507 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +9.8% | +13.4% | +6.7% | 55% | 26.8% | 1,987 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -5.8% | +9.8% | -8.3% | 51% | 21.4% | 1,815 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -5.2% | +1% | -12.4% | 52% | 13.3% | 1,614 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +17.7% | +11.7% | +10.1% | 56% | 17.6% | 1,374 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads High in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was high?
- Energy +9.4%, Consumer Discretionary +9.1%, Materials +8.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +5.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 29.8% of trading days since 1983, in 497 separate episodes. The typical run is 5 sessions; the longest lasted 32 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Sep 9, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.