How US sectors performed when inflation was high
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 4.6% of trading days, across 7 episodes with a typical run of 62 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +4.5% a year and Financials did worst at -20.6%, against -5.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +32.5% | +11.3% | +1.9% | 53% | 15.5% | 207 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +23.8% | +5.5% | -6.9% | 59% | 14.5% | 207 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +4.5% | +10.6% | +10.2% | 53% | 29.7% | 488 |
| Information Technology XLK | +3.7% | +11.8% | +9.4% | 52% | 29.7% | 488 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -6.6% | +5.6% | -0.9% | 50% | 17.2% | 488 |
| Health Care XLV | -9.1% | +8.8% | -3.4% | 50% | 21.7% | 488 |
| Energy XLE | -12% | +10.1% | -6.3% | 52% | 44.9% | 488 |
| Industrials XLI | -13.3% | +9.2% | -7.6% | 53% | 26.5% | 488 |
| Materials XLB | -16% | +8.6% | -10.3% | 50% | 33% | 488 |
| Utilities XLU | -16.6% | +5.7% | -10.9% | 48% | 26.2% | 488 |
| Financials XLF | -20.6% | +7.9% | -14.9% | 50% | 44.7% | 488 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -5.7% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 28% | 488 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +3.2% | +12.9% | +8.9% | 55% | 28.2% | 488 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -9% | +9.6% | -3.3% | 52% | 31.3% | 488 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +9.4% | +1% | +15.1% | 50% | 14.4% | 488 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -6.7% | +11.4% | -1% | 53% | 24.1% | 488 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads High in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was high?
- Consumer Discretionary +4.5%, Information Technology +3.7%, Consumer Staples -6.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned -5.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 4.6% of trading days since 1985, in 7 separate episodes. The typical run is 62 sessions; the longest lasted 130 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 23 Jun 2026 – 14 Jul 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.