How US sectors performed when inflation was low
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 14.4% of trading days, across 12 episodes with a typical run of 62 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Financials did best at +21.4% a year and Utilities did worst at +2.7%, against +15.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +51.3% | +11.3% | +8.6% | 61% | 21.3% | 210 |
| Financials XLF | +21.4% | +7.9% | +6.3% | 51% | 33.6% | 1,448 |
| Materials XLB | +21.2% | +8.6% | +6.1% | 55% | 23.4% | 1,448 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +20.8% | +10.6% | +5.7% | 54% | 21.4% | 1,448 |
| Industrials XLI | +20.8% | +9.2% | +5.7% | 53% | 22.4% | 1,448 |
| Energy XLE | +18.8% | +10.1% | +3.6% | 51% | 29.6% | 1,448 |
| Information Technology XLK | +18.5% | +11.8% | +3.4% | 55% | 22.9% | 1,448 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +13.7% | +5.5% | -9.7% | 53% | 19.8% | 495 |
| Health Care XLV | +12.7% | +8.8% | -2.5% | 53% | 18.4% | 1,448 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6% | +5.6% | -9.1% | 53% | 14.4% | 1,448 |
| Utilities XLU | +2.7% | +5.7% | -12.4% | 52% | 19% | 1,448 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +15.4% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 18.9% | 1,523 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +18.7% | +12.9% | +4% | 55% | 23.2% | 1,432 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +23.7% | +9.6% | +9% | 54% | 24% | 1,432 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -9.5% | +1% | -27.2% | 51% | 15.2% | 1,342 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7.8% | +11.4% | -11.7% | 51% | 17.3% | 1,305 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Low in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was low?
- Financials +21.4%, Materials +21.2%, Consumer Discretionary +20.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +15.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 14.4% of trading days since 1985, in 12 separate episodes. The typical run is 62 sessions; the longest lasted 486 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 13 May 2020 – 12 Mar 2021. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.