How US sectors performed when inflation was low
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 2.3% of trading days, across 13 episodes with a typical run of 9 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Health Care did best at +19.3% a year and Energy did worst at -32.4%, against -7.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care XLV | +19.3% | +8.5% | +27.2% | 52% | 38.8% | 246 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +16.6% | +12.3% | +18.7% | 55% | 56.9% | 60 |
| Utilities XLU | -1% | +5.4% | +6.9% | 51% | 49% | 246 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -1.4% | +10.4% | +6.6% | 52% | 47.9% | 246 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -3.1% | +5.3% | +4.8% | 50% | 33.2% | 246 |
| Information Technology XLK | -4.1% | +12.4% | +3.8% | 50% | 50.6% | 246 |
| Materials XLB | -17.1% | +8.5% | -9.2% | 52% | 53.3% | 246 |
| Industrials XLI | -25.2% | +9.4% | -17.3% | 54% | 48% | 246 |
| Financials XLF | -26.8% | +7.8% | -18.9% | 50% | 70.1% | 246 |
| Energy XLE | -32.4% | +10.2% | -24.5% | 51% | 73.2% | 246 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -45.8% | +5% | -43.7% | 50% | 71.5% | 60 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -7.9% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 48.2% | 246 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +2.9% | +13.4% | +10.8% | 50% | 45.9% | 246 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -17.1% | +9.8% | -9.1% | 52% | 53.7% | 246 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +40.9% | +1% | +48.9% | 54% | 24.4% | 246 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +26.7% | +11.7% | +34.7% | 53% | 32.9% | 246 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Low in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was low?
- Health Care +19.3%, Utilities -1%, Consumer Discretionary -1.4%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned -7.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 2.3% of trading days since 1983, in 13 separate episodes. The typical run is 9 sessions; the longest lasted 64 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jun 18, 2026 – Jun 30, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.