How US sectors performed when inflation was moderate
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 30.6% of trading days, across 24 episodes with a typical run of 92 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +22.2% a year and Energy did worst at +4.4%, against +13.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +22.2% | +11.8% | +9.9% | 55% | 23.3% | 2,899 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +18.6% | +11.3% | +3.7% | 57% | 23.2% | 728 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +14.8% | +10.6% | +2.5% | 54% | 20% | 2,899 |
| Industrials XLI | +11.5% | +9.2% | -0.8% | 54% | 19.5% | 2,899 |
| Health Care XLV | +11.2% | +8.8% | -1.2% | 52% | 17.1% | 2,899 |
| Materials XLB | +10.4% | +8.6% | -1.9% | 52% | 21.6% | 2,899 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.8% | +5.7% | -4.5% | 53% | 19% | 2,899 |
| Financials XLF | +6.6% | +7.9% | -5.7% | 51% | 22.8% | 2,899 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +5.9% | +5.5% | -8.9% | 54% | 21.5% | 1,121 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.1% | +5.6% | -7.2% | 51% | 15.3% | 2,899 |
| Energy XLE | +4.4% | +10.1% | -7.9% | 51% | 25.2% | 2,899 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +13.8% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 18% | 3,227 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +26.5% | +12.9% | +14.4% | 56% | 23.6% | 2,863 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +10.4% | +9.6% | -1.5% | 54% | 21.2% | 2,603 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +5.3% | +1% | -7.8% | 52% | 12.8% | 2,504 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +10.3% | +11.4% | -1.7% | 54% | 16.6% | 2,070 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Moderate in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was moderate?
- Information Technology +22.2%, Consumer Discretionary +14.8%, Industrials +11.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +13.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 30.6% of trading days since 1985, in 24 separate episodes. The typical run is 92 sessions; the longest lasted 432 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 22 Jan 2026 – 10 Apr 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.