How US sectors performed when inflation was moderate
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 19.5% of trading days, across 131 episodes with a typical run of 14 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +22.1% a year and Energy did worst at +3.5%, against +15.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +22.1% | +10.4% | +8.7% | 54% | 22.7% | 1,945 |
| Information Technology XLK | +19.5% | +12.4% | +6.1% | 55% | 24.9% | 1,945 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +15.6% | +5% | +3.6% | 55% | 18.9% | 780 |
| Industrials XLI | +15.2% | +9.4% | +1.8% | 53% | 21.3% | 1,945 |
| Financials XLF | +13.3% | +7.8% | -0.1% | 52% | 29.6% | 1,945 |
| Health Care XLV | +9.2% | +8.5% | -4.2% | 53% | 17.2% | 1,945 |
| Utilities XLU | +8.9% | +5.4% | -4.5% | 53% | 16.9% | 1,945 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +8.4% | +12.3% | -4.4% | 54% | 22.1% | 595 |
| Materials XLB | +8.1% | +8.5% | -5.3% | 52% | 23% | 1,945 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.8% | +5.3% | -6.6% | 52% | 14.1% | 1,945 |
| Energy XLE | +3.5% | +10.2% | -9.9% | 51% | 27.7% | 1,945 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +15.2% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 18.6% | 2,001 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +18.9% | +13.4% | +5.5% | 55% | 25.1% | 1,945 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +16.8% | +9.8% | +3.7% | 54% | 23.5% | 1,935 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +8.9% | +1% | -4.9% | 53% | 14.4% | 1,790 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +3.9% | +11.7% | -8.4% | 52% | 17.6% | 1,679 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Moderate in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was moderate?
- Consumer Discretionary +22.1%, Information Technology +19.5%, Industrials +15.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +15.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 19.5% of trading days since 1983, in 131 separate episodes. The typical run is 14 sessions; the longest lasted 98 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 6, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.