How US sectors performed when inflation was elevated
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 40.3% of trading days, across 484 episodes with a typical run of 7 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +19% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +2.6%, against +12.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +19% | +12.4% | +7.4% | 54% | 24.3% | 2,225 |
| Energy XLE | +16.7% | +10.2% | +5.1% | 53% | 24.2% | 2,225 |
| Health Care XLV | +14.2% | +8.5% | +2.6% | 53% | 15.9% | 2,225 |
| Financials XLF | +11.6% | +7.8% | -0.1% | 52% | 23.3% | 2,225 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +10.5% | +12.3% | -4.4% | 54% | 20.4% | 727 |
| Materials XLB | +9.8% | +8.5% | -1.8% | 52% | 20.4% | 2,225 |
| Utilities XLU | +9.8% | +5.4% | -1.8% | 54% | 16.6% | 2,225 |
| Industrials XLI | +9% | +9.4% | -2.7% | 53% | 18.5% | 2,225 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +8% | +5% | -8.8% | 51% | 17.2% | 989 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +6.2% | +10.4% | -5.5% | 52% | 20.4% | 2,225 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +2.6% | +5.3% | -9% | 51% | 13.9% | 2,225 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +12.6% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 16.4% | 3,048 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +16.6% | +13.4% | +5.3% | 54% | 25.8% | 2,217 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +18.9% | +9.8% | +7.1% | 54% | 21% | 2,124 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.1% | +1% | -12.6% | 50% | 13.4% | 1,972 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +9.4% | +11.7% | -4% | 53% | 16.3% | 1,814 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Elevated in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was elevated?
- Information Technology +19%, Energy +16.7%, Health Care +14.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +12.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 40.3% of trading days since 1983, in 484 separate episodes. The typical run is 7 sessions; the longest lasted 55 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Sep 11, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.