How US sectors performed when inflation was elevated
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 18.2% of trading days, across 19 episodes with a typical run of 56 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +13.5% a year and Information Technology did worst at -5%, against +4.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +13.5% | +10.1% | +10.2% | 54% | 26.1% | 1,824 |
| Financials XLF | +10.9% | +7.9% | +7.6% | 52% | 26.2% | 1,824 |
| Utilities XLU | +10.8% | +5.7% | +7.5% | 53% | 17.5% | 1,824 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +9.5% | +5.6% | +6.2% | 51% | 15.2% | 1,824 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.9% | +8.8% | +4.6% | 50% | 17.6% | 1,824 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.7% | +9.2% | +1.4% | 52% | 20.9% | 1,824 |
| Materials XLB | +4.5% | +8.6% | +1.2% | 50% | 23.6% | 1,824 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +3.8% | +5.5% | -4.1% | 51% | 17% | 611 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +3.1% | +10.6% | -0.2% | 51% | 23.3% | 1,824 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -1.3% | +11.3% | -9.2% | 52% | 17.9% | 611 |
| Information Technology XLK | -5% | +11.8% | -8.3% | 52% | 30.3% | 1,824 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +4.8% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 18.7% | 1,919 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -5.9% | +12.9% | -9.2% | 52% | 32.9% | 1,824 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.6% | +9.6% | +3.5% | 51% | 24.4% | 1,776 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +6% | +1% | -2.5% | 51% | 14.2% | 1,422 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +24.4% | +11.4% | +16.2% | 55% | 20.1% | 1,311 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Elevated in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was elevated?
- Energy +13.5%, Financials +10.9%, Utilities +10.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +4.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 18.2% of trading days since 1985, in 19 separate episodes. The typical run is 56 sessions; the longest lasted 402 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 15 Jul 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.