How US sectors performed when inflation was extreme
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 3.3% of trading days, across 1 episodes with a typical run of 352 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +34.5% a year and Consumer Discretionary did worst at -19.6%, against -6.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +34.5% | +10.1% | +41.1% | 54% | 33.4% | 352 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.6% | +5.7% | +11.2% | 53% | 20.4% | 352 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.2% | +5.6% | +10.8% | 53% | 16.4% | 352 |
| Health Care XLV | +2.6% | +8.8% | +9.2% | 51% | 17.4% | 352 |
| Industrials XLI | -2.8% | +9.2% | +3.8% | 51% | 20.8% | 352 |
| Materials XLB | -3.9% | +8.6% | +2.7% | 50% | 23.6% | 352 |
| Information Technology XLK | -4.2% | +11.8% | +2.4% | 48% | 30.3% | 352 |
| Financials XLF | -12.1% | +7.9% | -5.6% | 47% | 23.6% | 352 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -15.4% | +5.5% | -8.8% | 47% | 24.7% | 352 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -18.1% | +11.3% | -11.5% | 48% | 28.9% | 352 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -19.6% | +10.6% | -13% | 47% | 31.6% | 352 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -6.6% | +10.1% | — | 46% | 22.3% | 352 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -11.3% | +12.9% | -4.7% | 47% | 29.6% | 352 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -17.5% | +9.6% | -10.9% | 50% | 26.7% | 352 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -20.5% | +1% | -13.9% | 48% | 19.7% | 352 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7.8% | +11.4% | +14.4% | 51% | 15.2% | 352 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Extreme in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was extreme?
- Energy +34.5%, Utilities +4.6%, Consumer Staples +4.2%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned -6.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 3.3% of trading days since 1985, in 1 separate episodes. The typical run is 352 sessions; the longest lasted 352 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 16 Nov 2021 – 12 Apr 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.