How US sectors performed when inflation was extreme
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 8.2% of trading days, across 282 episodes with a typical run of 3 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +30.2% a year and Consumer Discretionary did worst at -4.6%, against +8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +30.2% | +10.2% | +25.8% | 52% | 25.6% | 533 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +23.4% | +12.3% | -2.4% | 53% | 21% | 200 |
| Industrials XLI | +16.7% | +9.4% | +12.3% | 55% | 18.4% | 533 |
| Materials XLB | +15.1% | +8.5% | +10.7% | 51% | 21.3% | 533 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +11.8% | +5% | -6.9% | 52% | 16.9% | 233 |
| Utilities XLU | +11.2% | +5.4% | +6.8% | 53% | 17.5% | 533 |
| Financials XLF | +7.4% | +7.8% | +3% | 50% | 21% | 533 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.9% | +5.3% | +2.4% | 52% | 14% | 533 |
| Health Care XLV | +4.6% | +8.5% | +0.1% | 50% | 16% | 533 |
| Information Technology XLK | +2.5% | +12.4% | -1.9% | 54% | 25.3% | 533 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -4.6% | +10.4% | -9.1% | 51% | 19.9% | 533 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 15.6% | 667 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -2.3% | +13.4% | -7% | 54% | 26.7% | 532 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13.8% | +9.8% | +8.8% | 52% | 21.2% | 499 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -25.6% | +1% | -37.5% | 46% | 13.8% | 454 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +25.4% | +11.7% | +16.3% | 54% | 18.8% | 381 |
How this regime is defined
Inflation environment reads Extreme in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when inflation was extreme?
- Energy +30.2%, Industrials +16.7%, Materials +15.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 8.2% of trading days since 1983, in 282 separate episodes. The typical run is 3 sessions; the longest lasted 11 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Aug 3, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.