How US sectors performed when Fed policy was very restrictive
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 42.6% of trading days, across 19 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +16.5% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +5.4%, against +18% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +37.8% | +12.3% | +8.2% | 57% | 19.3% | 443 |
| Information Technology XLK | +16.5% | +12.4% | +3.2% | 55% | 31% | 1,393 |
| Industrials XLI | +16.3% | +9.4% | +3% | 54% | 19.2% | 1,393 |
| Financials XLF | +15.7% | +7.8% | +2.4% | 51% | 24% | 1,393 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +14.5% | +10.4% | +1.2% | 52% | 23.6% | 1,393 |
| Energy XLE | +12.9% | +10.2% | -0.4% | 52% | 25% | 1,393 |
| Materials XLB | +11.5% | +8.5% | -1.8% | 51% | 23.2% | 1,393 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +9.8% | +5% | -19.7% | 52% | 19.5% | 457 |
| Utilities XLU | +9.6% | +5.4% | -3.7% | 52% | 18.7% | 1,393 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.2% | +8.5% | -5.2% | 51% | 18.1% | 1,393 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.4% | +5.3% | -7.9% | 51% | 17.1% | 1,393 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +18% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 17.8% | 2,461 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.9% | +13.4% | +5.5% | 55% | 35.6% | 1,341 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +13.7% | +9.8% | -0.2% | 53% | 23.2% | 1,033 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -1.7% | +1% | -24.7% | 51% | 14.1% | 816 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +14.3% | +11.7% | -9.5% | 52% | 16.8% | 810 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Very restrictive in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was very restrictive?
- Information Technology +16.5%, Industrials +16.3%, Financials +15.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +18%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 42.6% of trading days since 1983, in 19 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 2,237 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.