How US sectors performed when Fed policy was accommodative
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 24.6% of trading days, across 14 episodes with a typical run of 38 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Materials did best at +15.4% a year and Financials did worst at +6%, against +11.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | +15.4% | +8.6% | +3.7% | 54% | 20.4% | 2,598 |
| Information Technology XLK | +15.3% | +11.8% | +3.7% | 54% | 20.4% | 2,598 |
| Energy XLE | +15% | +10.1% | +3.3% | 53% | 26.1% | 2,598 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +13.7% | +10.6% | +2% | 54% | 18.5% | 2,598 |
| Industrials XLI | +13.6% | +9.2% | +2% | 54% | 18.9% | 2,598 |
| Health Care XLV | +12.2% | +8.8% | +0.5% | 53% | 15.8% | 2,598 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +8.9% | +11.3% | +7.8% | 54% | 28.6% | 364 |
| Utilities XLU | +7.3% | +5.7% | -4.4% | 53% | 17.5% | 2,598 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +6.2% | +5.6% | -5.5% | 52% | 13.6% | 2,598 |
| Financials XLF | +6% | +7.9% | -5.7% | 51% | 23.1% | 2,598 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -4.2% | +5.5% | -14.5% | 52% | 22.4% | 949 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +11.7% | +10.1% | — | 56% | 16.1% | 2,598 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +19.1% | +12.9% | +7.4% | 55% | 19.9% | 2,598 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +15.7% | +9.6% | +4% | 55% | 20.7% | 2,598 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -1.3% | +1% | -13.1% | 52% | 13.6% | 2,595 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +1.4% | +11.4% | -10% | 52% | 16.3% | 2,095 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Accommodative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was accommodative?
- Materials +15.4%, Information Technology +15.3%, Energy +15%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +11.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 24.6% of trading days since 1985, in 14 separate episodes. The typical run is 38 sessions; the longest lasted 677 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 17 Feb 2023 – 13 Apr 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.