How US sectors performed when Fed policy was accommodative
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 4.9% of trading days, across 59 episodes with a typical run of 1 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +10.3% a year and Industrials did worst at +0.4%, against +3.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +10.3% | +10.2% | +6.4% | 49% | 32.4% | 536 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8% | +10.4% | +4.1% | 51% | 24.9% | 536 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.8% | +8.5% | +3.9% | 51% | 18.1% | 536 |
| Information Technology XLK | +6.6% | +12.4% | +2.7% | 51% | 25.5% | 536 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.2% | +5.4% | +2.3% | 51% | 19.7% | 536 |
| Materials XLB | +6.2% | +8.5% | +2.3% | 53% | 25.9% | 536 |
| Financials XLF | +5.7% | +7.8% | +1.8% | 49% | 38.1% | 536 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.1% | +5.3% | +0.3% | 53% | 14.7% | 536 |
| Industrials XLI | +0.4% | +9.4% | -3.4% | 50% | 22% | 536 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -3.1% | +5% | -7.6% | 51% | 16.7% | 249 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +12.3% | — | — | — | 43 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +3.9% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 21.8% | 536 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +4.1% | +13.4% | +0.2% | 50% | 26.1% | 536 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -1.5% | +9.8% | -5.3% | 49% | 27.6% | 536 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +9.2% | +1% | +4.4% | 55% | 16% | 480 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +15.2% | +11.7% | +13.4% | 53% | 19.2% | 440 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Accommodative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was accommodative?
- Energy +10.3%, Consumer Discretionary +8%, Health Care +7.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +3.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 4.9% of trading days since 1983, in 59 separate episodes. The typical run is 1 sessions; the longest lasted 98 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Apr 7, 2022 – Apr 7, 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.