How US sectors performed when Fed policy was neutral
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 14.5% of trading days, across 15 episodes with a typical run of 61 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Financials did best at +12.4% a year and Energy did worst at -5.3%, against +5.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +15.9% | +5.5% | +0.3% | 54% | 17.8% | 649 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +13.4% | +11.3% | -6.6% | 55% | 19.4% | 556 |
| Financials XLF | +12.4% | +7.9% | +6.7% | 50% | 31.3% | 1,526 |
| Information Technology XLK | +11.5% | +11.8% | +5.9% | 53% | 27.8% | 1,526 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +10.7% | +10.6% | +5.1% | 52% | 22.6% | 1,526 |
| Health Care XLV | +9.3% | +8.8% | +3.7% | 51% | 19.5% | 1,526 |
| Materials XLB | +4.1% | +8.6% | -1.6% | 51% | 23.4% | 1,526 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +3.7% | +5.6% | -2% | 50% | 15.6% | 1,526 |
| Industrials XLI | +1.3% | +9.2% | -4.4% | 50% | 22.7% | 1,526 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.3% | +5.7% | -7% | 52% | 20.2% | 1,526 |
| Energy XLE | -5.3% | +10.1% | -11% | 50% | 28.4% | 1,526 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +5.6% | +10.1% | — | 52% | 19.4% | 1,526 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +10.5% | +12.9% | +4.9% | 53% | 27.6% | 1,526 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7% | +9.6% | +1.4% | 51% | 23.1% | 1,526 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.2% | +1% | -11.7% | 51% | 13.4% | 1,252 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +13% | +11.4% | +1.3% | 53% | 16.8% | 1,170 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was neutral?
- Financials +12.4%, Information Technology +11.5%, Consumer Discretionary +10.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +5.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 14.5% of trading days since 1985, in 15 separate episodes. The typical run is 61 sessions; the longest lasted 295 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 14 Apr 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.