How US sectors performed when Fed policy was neutral
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 6.6% of trading days, across 74 episodes with a typical run of 3 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +15.5% a year and Energy did worst at -12.8%, against +6.4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +15.5% | +12.4% | +9.1% | 55% | 26% | 730 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +12.3% | +10.4% | +5.9% | 54% | 19.7% | 730 |
| Financials XLF | +7.9% | +7.8% | +1.4% | 51% | 22.6% | 730 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.6% | +9.4% | +1.2% | 54% | 20.5% | 730 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.2% | +8.5% | -1.2% | 53% | 18.2% | 730 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.9% | +5.4% | -1.5% | 54% | 21% | 730 |
| Materials XLB | +1.1% | +8.5% | -5.4% | 52% | 20.9% | 730 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -0.3% | +5.3% | -6.7% | 51% | 14.4% | 730 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -11.8% | +5% | -14% | 49% | 16.3% | 321 |
| Energy XLE | -12.8% | +10.2% | -19.2% | 50% | 25.3% | 730 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -19.8% | +12.3% | -6.8% | 55% | 21.1% | 148 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.4% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 18.1% | 730 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +16.1% | +13.4% | +9.6% | 56% | 25.2% | 730 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +8.2% | +9.8% | +1.8% | 54% | 20.6% | 730 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +12.7% | +1% | +2.8% | 55% | 12.7% | 663 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +14.8% | +11.7% | +7.1% | 54% | 12.2% | 400 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Neutral in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was neutral?
- Information Technology +15.5%, Consumer Discretionary +12.3%, Financials +7.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 6.6% of trading days since 1983, in 74 separate episodes. The typical run is 3 sessions; the longest lasted 110 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen May 6, 2022 – May 6, 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.