How US sectors performed when Fed policy was very accommodative
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 18% of trading days, across 53 episodes with a typical run of 15 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +15.5% a year and Utilities did worst at +3.8%, against +9.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +16.8% | +12.3% | -4.2% | 55% | 27.9% | 455 |
| Energy XLE | +15.5% | +10.2% | +5.7% | 51% | 34% | 1,982 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +13.9% | +5% | -7.8% | 55% | 28.8% | 551 |
| Information Technology XLK | +13.8% | +12.4% | +3.9% | 53% | 25% | 1,982 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +13.6% | +10.4% | +3.7% | 54% | 24% | 1,982 |
| Health Care XLV | +13.1% | +8.5% | +3.3% | 53% | 19.3% | 1,982 |
| Industrials XLI | +11% | +9.4% | +1.2% | 53% | 23.9% | 1,982 |
| Materials XLB | +9.1% | +8.5% | -0.8% | 52% | 26.3% | 1,982 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +8.1% | +5.3% | -1.7% | 53% | 16.2% | 1,982 |
| Financials XLF | +7% | +7.8% | -2.9% | 52% | 31.7% | 1,982 |
| Utilities XLU | +3.8% | +5.4% | -6% | 52% | 21.9% | 1,982 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.9% | +10.2% | — | 55% | 21.8% | 1,982 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.2% | +13.4% | +7.4% | 55% | 24.3% | 1,982 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +12.4% | +9.8% | +2.5% | 54% | 26.4% | 1,982 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -4.6% | +1% | -15.1% | 50% | 15.6% | 1,968 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -4.3% | +11.7% | -14.2% | 51% | 19.6% | 1,853 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Very accommodative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was very accommodative?
- Energy +15.5%, Information Technology +13.8%, Consumer Discretionary +13.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 18% of trading days since 1983, in 53 separate episodes. The typical run is 15 sessions; the longest lasted 215 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Apr 8, 2022 – May 5, 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.