How US sectors performed when Fed policy was very accommodative
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 9.4% of trading days, across 5 episodes with a typical run of 112 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +7.9% a year and Materials did worst at -10.6%, against -3% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +10.3% | +5.5% | +1.7% | 52% | 23.5% | 473 |
| Energy XLE | +7.9% | +10.1% | +10.9% | 50% | 40.9% | 986 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4% | +5.6% | +7% | 52% | 17.8% | 986 |
| Health Care XLV | +1.7% | +8.8% | +4.6% | 51% | 21.3% | 986 |
| Utilities XLU | +1.4% | +5.7% | +4.4% | 52% | 24.5% | 986 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +1.3% | +10.6% | +4.2% | 52% | 31.5% | 986 |
| Information Technology XLK | -1.4% | +11.8% | +1.6% | 50% | 30.3% | 986 |
| Financials XLF | -3.6% | +7.9% | -0.6% | 51% | 40.8% | 986 |
| Industrials XLI | -5.5% | +9.2% | -2.5% | 51% | 27.5% | 986 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -7.6% | +11.3% | -16.2% | 49% | 26.2% | 473 |
| Materials XLB | -10.6% | +8.6% | -7.6% | 49% | 32% | 986 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | -3% | +10.1% | — | 51% | 27.8% | 986 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | -4.3% | +12.9% | -1.3% | 51% | 29.6% | 986 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -6.1% | +9.6% | -3.1% | 51% | 33.3% | 986 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +10.9% | +1% | +13.9% | 51% | 18.4% | 986 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7% | +11.4% | +10% | 52% | 21.4% | 986 |
How this regime is defined
Monetary policy reads Very accommodative in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when Fed policy was very accommodative?
- Energy +7.9%, Consumer Staples +4%, Health Care +1.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned -3%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 9.4% of trading days since 1985, in 5 separate episodes. The typical run is 112 sessions; the longest lasted 465 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 15 Apr 2021 – 16 Feb 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.