Every forecast, written down before the outcome
Each trading day the Regime Radar publishes its chance that the composite market regime changes within five sessions. The day it is published, that forecast is recorded here and never edited. Five sessions later the record shows what happened.
Records since Sep 25, 2026
How a record works
Written once: the first time a day's forecast is served on the live site, it is stored with the date and time, and it is never changed afterwards.
Resolved against the record: once five later sessions are published, the record reads Changed if the composite regime differed from the recorded state on any of them, Held if it did not, and Unmeasured if any of them has no reading. The outcome is then written beside the forecast and kept.
Calibrated in the open: when enough records have resolved, the average forecast is shown beside the share that actually changed, with the Brier score.
The records
| Record | Date | Chance of a change within 5 sessions | Composite regime then | If it changes | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #001 | 10.3%range 6.1%–16.8% | Moderate risk on | Toward risk-on | Open |
Calibration
Calibration appears once 20 records have resolved; 0 have so far.
The other record
The weekly Golden Ticket baskets are recorded the same way: picked by rule, published in full once the week closes, and kept with every outcome.
The Refutation Ledger →Forecasts of the market regime, never of a price. Not investment advice.