How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read elevated risk
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 14.1% of trading days, across 15 episodes with a typical run of 57 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Materials did best at +22.8% a year and Health Care did worst at +7.6%, against +17% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +37.6% | +11.3% | +11.8% | 58% | 20.9% | 821 |
| Materials XLB | +22.8% | +8.6% | +5.8% | 53% | 22.4% | 1,489 |
| Energy XLE | +21% | +10.1% | +4% | 53% | 26.4% | 1,489 |
| Information Technology XLK | +20.3% | +11.8% | +3.3% | 54% | 28% | 1,489 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +20% | +10.6% | +3% | 53% | 22.8% | 1,489 |
| Industrials XLI | +19.8% | +9.2% | +2.8% | 54% | 19.6% | 1,489 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +18% | +5.5% | -7.8% | 52% | 22.3% | 821 |
| Utilities XLU | +17.9% | +5.7% | +0.9% | 53% | 19.4% | 1,489 |
| Financials XLF | +13.2% | +7.9% | -3.8% | 51% | 23.3% | 1,489 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +11.6% | +5.6% | -5.5% | 52% | 14.5% | 1,489 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.6% | +8.8% | -9.4% | 51% | 16.9% | 1,489 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +17% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 17.8% | 1,489 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +21% | +12.9% | +4% | 55% | 28.1% | 1,489 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +17.9% | +9.6% | +0.9% | 53% | 23.2% | 1,489 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.3% | +1% | -21.2% | 51% | 14.6% | 1,314 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +26.9% | +11.4% | +2.8% | 55% | 19.1% | 1,164 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Elevated risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read elevated risk?
- Materials +22.8%, Energy +21%, Information Technology +20.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +17%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 14.1% of trading days since 1985, in 15 separate episodes. The typical run is 57 sessions; the longest lasted 440 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 17 Dec 2025 – 6 Mar 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.