How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read elevated risk
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 28% of trading days, across 101 episodes with a typical run of 5 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +19.7% a year and Utilities did worst at +4.7%, against +14.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +31.2% | +12.3% | +9.7% | 55% | 17.7% | 610 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +19.7% | +10.4% | +5% | 53% | 20.4% | 1,806 |
| Information Technology XLK | +16.9% | +12.4% | +2.2% | 54% | 24% | 1,806 |
| Industrials XLI | +16.8% | +9.4% | +2.1% | 54% | 19.2% | 1,806 |
| Energy XLE | +16.6% | +10.2% | +2% | 52% | 23.1% | 1,806 |
| Financials XLF | +15.8% | +7.8% | +1.2% | 52% | 22.2% | 1,806 |
| Materials XLB | +15.2% | +8.5% | +0.5% | 53% | 21.8% | 1,806 |
| Health Care XLV | +13% | +8.5% | -1.6% | 54% | 15.5% | 1,806 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +9.4% | +5.3% | -5.2% | 53% | 13.1% | 1,806 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +9.4% | +5% | -12% | 52% | 17.9% | 624 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.7% | +5.4% | -9.9% | 51% | 16.9% | 1,806 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +14.8% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 16.6% | 1,995 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +19.6% | +13.4% | +4.7% | 54% | 23.9% | 1,802 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +16% | +9.8% | +0.9% | 53% | 22.7% | 1,787 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.9% | +1% | -15.8% | 51% | 15.7% | 1,724 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +15.2% | +11.7% | -0.4% | 54% | 17.8% | 1,544 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Elevated risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read elevated risk?
- Consumer Discretionary +19.7%, Information Technology +16.9%, Industrials +16.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +14.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 28% of trading days since 1983, in 101 separate episodes. The typical run is 5 sessions; the longest lasted 381 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jan 30, 2026 – Feb 26, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.