How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read moderate risk
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 14.3% of trading days, across 23 episodes with a typical run of 43 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +13.7% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +1.8%, against +8.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +13.7% | +10.1% | +7.1% | 53% | 31.2% | 1,226 |
| Industrials XLI | +12.2% | +9.2% | +5.6% | 55% | 23.2% | 1,226 |
| Information Technology XLK | +8.6% | +11.8% | +2% | 54% | 30.4% | 1,226 |
| Financials XLF | +8.1% | +7.9% | +1.5% | 52% | 27.8% | 1,226 |
| Materials XLB | +6.8% | +8.6% | +0.1% | 50% | 26% | 1,226 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.2% | +8.8% | -0.4% | 51% | 19.6% | 1,226 |
| Utilities XLU | +4.6% | +5.7% | -2% | 54% | 21% | 1,226 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +3.7% | +10.6% | -2.9% | 51% | 24.8% | 1,226 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +1.8% | +5.6% | -4.8% | 51% | 18.1% | 1,226 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -9.9% | +11.3% | -11.4% | 52% | 25.5% | 465 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -20.1% | +5.5% | -22.2% | 53% | 25% | 475 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.9% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 21.3% | 1,510 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +2.6% | +12.9% | -2.8% | 54% | 32.7% | 1,174 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +5.2% | +9.6% | -0% | 54% | 26% | 1,081 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.3% | +1% | -6.3% | 50% | 15.2% | 974 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18.7% | +11.4% | +15.1% | 55% | 20.2% | 912 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Moderate risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read moderate risk?
- Energy +13.7%, Industrials +12.2%, Information Technology +8.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 14.3% of trading days since 1985, in 23 separate episodes. The typical run is 43 sessions; the longest lasted 238 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 15 Jun 2026 – 31 Jul 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.