How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read moderate risk
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 12.2% of trading days, across 67 episodes with a typical run of 13 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +21.6% a year and Financials did worst at -5.2%, against +6.6% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +21.6% | +10.2% | +14.4% | 56% | 19.6% | 465 |
| Materials XLB | +19% | +8.5% | +11.8% | 56% | 18% | 465 |
| Utilities XLU | +10.4% | +5.4% | +3.2% | 53% | 14.2% | 465 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.1% | +9.4% | +2.8% | 53% | 14.6% | 465 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +9.6% | +5.3% | +2.4% | 53% | 10% | 465 |
| Information Technology XLK | +7.6% | +12.4% | +0.4% | 53% | 18.5% | 465 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.1% | +8.5% | -0.2% | 51% | 13.5% | 465 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +2.7% | +10.4% | -4.5% | 52% | 15.6% | 465 |
| Financials XLF | -5.2% | +7.8% | -12.4% | 51% | 17.5% | 465 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +12.3% | — | — | — | 7 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5% | — | — | — | 7 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +6.6% | +10.2% | — | 52% | 12.7% | 978 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.3% | +13.4% | +6.1% | 55% | 19% | 465 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.4% | +9.8% | +0.2% | 55% | 19.3% | 465 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +6.4% | +1% | -0.8% | 53% | 11.8% | 465 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +18.4% | +11.7% | +10.6% | 53% | 17.2% | 251 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Moderate risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read moderate risk?
- Energy +21.6%, Materials +19%, Utilities +10.4%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +6.6%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 12.2% of trading days since 1983, in 67 separate episodes. The typical run is 13 sessions; the longest lasted 107 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 31, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.