How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read recessionary
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 18.8% of trading days, across 56 episodes with a typical run of 5 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +9.6% a year and Utilities did worst at -3.5%, against +4% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +38.5% | +12.3% | +9.4% | 60% | 30.2% | 343 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +16.9% | +5% | -12.7% | 53% | 34.2% | 365 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.6% | +10.4% | +6.9% | 52% | 31.7% | 1,421 |
| Materials XLB | +8% | +8.5% | +5.3% | 53% | 33.4% | 1,421 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.7% | +8.5% | +5% | 50% | 24.4% | 1,421 |
| Energy XLE | +7.2% | +10.2% | +4.5% | 51% | 43.2% | 1,421 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.5% | +9.4% | +1.8% | 53% | 31.5% | 1,421 |
| Financials XLF | +3.4% | +7.8% | +0.8% | 50% | 47.5% | 1,421 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +2.8% | +5.3% | +0.2% | 50% | 20.4% | 1,421 |
| Information Technology XLK | +0.8% | +12.4% | -1.9% | 51% | 35.3% | 1,421 |
| Utilities XLU | -3.5% | +5.4% | -6.2% | 51% | 27.9% | 1,421 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +4% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 28% | 1,476 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +5.1% | +13.4% | +2.4% | 53% | 36% | 1,421 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9.2% | +9.8% | +6.6% | 52% | 33.6% | 1,415 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.1% | +1% | -8.4% | 50% | 17.7% | 1,064 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +13.8% | +11.7% | +4.2% | 53% | 23.4% | 989 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Recessionary in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read recessionary?
- Consumer Discretionary +9.6%, Materials +8%, Health Care +7.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +4%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 18.8% of trading days since 1983, in 56 separate episodes. The typical run is 5 sessions; the longest lasted 565 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 1, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.