How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read recessionary
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 11.3% of trading days, across 4 episodes with a typical run of 251 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Consumer Discretionary did best at +12.4% a year and Utilities did worst at -11.1%, against +1.5% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +42% | +11.3% | +4.3% | 59% | 19.5% | 313 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +26.3% | +5.5% | -11.4% | 55% | 19.8% | 313 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +12.4% | +10.6% | +10.9% | 52% | 31.1% | 1,188 |
| Financials XLF | +10.1% | +7.9% | +8.6% | 51% | 48.2% | 1,188 |
| Materials XLB | +5.8% | +8.6% | +4.3% | 52% | 32.7% | 1,188 |
| Industrials XLI | +4.5% | +9.2% | +3% | 52% | 30.4% | 1,188 |
| Health Care XLV | +3.9% | +8.8% | +2.5% | 51% | 23.1% | 1,188 |
| Information Technology XLK | +1.1% | +11.8% | -0.4% | 51% | 34% | 1,188 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +0.7% | +5.6% | -0.8% | 51% | 18.4% | 1,188 |
| Energy XLE | -1.8% | +10.1% | -3.3% | 50% | 40.9% | 1,188 |
| Utilities XLU | -11.1% | +5.7% | -12.6% | 49% | 26.7% | 1,188 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +1.5% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 27.9% | 1,188 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +2.7% | +12.9% | +1.2% | 53% | 34.1% | 1,188 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9% | +9.6% | +7.5% | 52% | 32.9% | 1,188 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.4% | +1% | -7.9% | 50% | 15.8% | 927 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +17.5% | +11.4% | +8.3% | 53% | 22.9% | 835 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Recessionary in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read recessionary?
- Consumer Discretionary +12.4%, Financials +10.1%, Materials +5.8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +1.5%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 11.3% of trading days since 1985, in 4 separate episodes. The typical run is 251 sessions; the longest lasted 522 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 7 Aug 2024 – 1 Nov 2024. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.