How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read low risk
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 31.4% of trading days, across 15 episodes with a typical run of 212 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +13.8% a year and Materials did worst at +3.4%, against +9.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +13.8% | +11.8% | +6% | 55% | 18.7% | 3,093 |
| Health Care XLV | +11.7% | +8.8% | +3.9% | 53% | 15.1% | 3,093 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8.6% | +10.6% | +0.8% | 53% | 17.2% | 3,093 |
| Energy XLE | +7.9% | +10.1% | +0.1% | 51% | 22.1% | 3,093 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.8% | +5.7% | -1% | 53% | 14.5% | 3,093 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.9% | +5.6% | -1.9% | 52% | 13% | 3,093 |
| Industrials XLI | +5.1% | +9.2% | -2.7% | 52% | 15.9% | 3,093 |
| Financials XLF | +4.7% | +7.9% | -3.2% | 51% | 18.5% | 3,093 |
| Materials XLB | +3.4% | +8.6% | -4.4% | 51% | 18.3% | 3,093 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +1.5% | +5.5% | -1.9% | 52% | 16.4% | 1,162 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -30.3% | +11.3% | -21.7% | 47% | 22.1% | 494 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +9.8% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 14.9% | 3,307 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +17.3% | +12.9% | +9.5% | 55% | 19.8% | 3,093 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +7.7% | +9.6% | -0.1% | 53% | 18.2% | 2,878 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +2.1% | +1% | -5.7% | 52% | 13.3% | 2,878 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -0.2% | +11.4% | -7% | 52% | 15.3% | 2,600 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Low risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read low risk?
- Information Technology +13.8%, Health Care +11.7%, Consumer Discretionary +8.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +9.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 31.4% of trading days since 1985, in 15 separate episodes. The typical run is 212 sessions; the longest lasted 1,206 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 3 Aug 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.