How US sectors performed when the recession gauge read low risk
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 40.9% of trading days, across 110 episodes with a typical run of 21 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +15.7% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +3.4%, against +11.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +15.7% | +12.4% | +7.8% | 55% | 23.1% | 3,287 |
| Utilities XLU | +8.9% | +5.4% | +1% | 54% | 16.3% | 3,287 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.4% | +9.4% | -0.5% | 53% | 16.8% | 3,287 |
| Financials XLF | +7.1% | +7.8% | -0.8% | 51% | 20% | 3,287 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +6.7% | +10.4% | -1.2% | 52% | 19.8% | 3,287 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.6% | +8.5% | -1.3% | 51% | 16.2% | 3,287 |
| Energy XLE | +6.3% | +10.2% | -1.6% | 51% | 24.2% | 3,287 |
| Materials XLB | +3.5% | +8.5% | -4.4% | 50% | 19.7% | 3,287 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +3.4% | +5.3% | -4.5% | 51% | 14.4% | 3,287 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +1.1% | +5% | -6.4% | 53% | 17% | 1,758 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -7.1% | +12.3% | -12.3% | 52% | 21.4% | 1,116 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +11.2% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 16.2% | 4,020 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.5% | +13.4% | +6.2% | 55% | 24.8% | 3,239 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +6.6% | +9.8% | -0.6% | 53% | 19.2% | 2,952 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +0.5% | +1% | -7.8% | 52% | 12.2% | 2,823 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +8.2% | +11.7% | +0.4% | 53% | 16.4% | 2,710 |
How this regime is defined
Recession risk reads Low risk in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the recession gauge read low risk?
- Information Technology +15.7%, Utilities +8.9%, Industrials +7.4%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +11.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 40.9% of trading days since 1983, in 110 separate episodes. The typical run is 21 sessions; the longest lasted 303 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Aug 3, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.