How US sectors performed when liquidity was ample
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 44.6% of trading days, across 199 episodes with a typical run of 14 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +11.8% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +4.9%, against +8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +11.8% | +10.2% | +3.5% | 52% | 22.9% | 3,924 |
| Information Technology XLK | +11.4% | +12.4% | +3.1% | 55% | 19% | 3,924 |
| Industrials XLI | +10.4% | +9.4% | +2.1% | 53% | 15.9% | 3,924 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.9% | +10.4% | +1.6% | 54% | 17.3% | 3,924 |
| Financials XLF | +9.5% | +7.8% | +1.2% | 52% | 17.9% | 3,924 |
| Materials XLB | +7.7% | +8.5% | -0.6% | 52% | 18.1% | 3,924 |
| Health Care XLV | +7.1% | +8.5% | -1.2% | 52% | 14.1% | 3,924 |
| Utilities XLU | +5.8% | +5.4% | -2.6% | 53% | 14.7% | 3,924 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.9% | +5.3% | -3.4% | 52% | 11.9% | 3,924 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +3.1% | +5% | -3.9% | 53% | 16.6% | 1,767 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -5.9% | +12.3% | -10.2% | 52% | 20% | 1,231 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 13.5% | 4,492 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +11.7% | +13.4% | +3.4% | 55% | 18.8% | 3,924 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9.2% | +9.8% | +1.1% | 53% | 18.5% | 3,882 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -1.8% | +1% | -10.8% | 51% | 12.6% | 3,819 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7.8% | +11.7% | -0.5% | 53% | 16.8% | 3,488 |
How this regime is defined
Market liquidity reads Ample in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when liquidity was ample?
- Energy +11.8%, Information Technology +11.4%, Industrials +10.4%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 44.6% of trading days since 1983, in 199 separate episodes. The typical run is 14 sessions; the longest lasted 204 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Dec 11, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.