How US sectors performed when liquidity was tight
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 5.2% of trading days, across 17 episodes with a typical run of 38 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +27.4% a year and Utilities did worst at -31.3%, against +0.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +27.4% | +11.8% | +30.1% | 55% | 33.1% | 375 |
| Health Care XLV | +8.2% | +8.8% | +11% | 49% | 23.2% | 375 |
| Industrials XLI | -0.5% | +9.2% | +2.2% | 53% | 22.4% | 375 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | -3.6% | +10.6% | -0.8% | 48% | 26.6% | 375 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -15.8% | +5.6% | -13.1% | 47% | 20.7% | 375 |
| Energy XLE | -25.4% | +10.1% | -22.7% | 46% | 30.5% | 375 |
| Financials XLF | -27.7% | +7.9% | -25% | 44% | 33.9% | 375 |
| Materials XLB | -28.3% | +8.6% | -25.5% | 48% | 25.8% | 375 |
| Utilities XLU | -31.3% | +5.7% | -28.6% | 47% | 22.4% | 375 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +11.3% | — | — | — | 9 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5.5% | — | — | — | 9 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +0.7% | +10.1% | — | 50% | 22.7% | 545 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +46.5% | +12.9% | +51.9% | 54% | 44.1% | 336 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +12.3% | +9.6% | +19.4% | 52% | 26.8% | 222 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0% | +1% | +51.1% | 52% | 17.1% | 125 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +29.5% | +11.4% | +80.6% | 55% | 20.6% | 125 |
How this regime is defined
Market liquidity reads Tight in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when liquidity was tight?
- Information Technology +27.4%, Health Care +8.2%, Industrials -0.5%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +0.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 5.2% of trading days since 1985, in 17 separate episodes. The typical run is 38 sessions; the longest lasted 77 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 5 Jul 2022 – 11 Jul 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.