How US sectors performed when liquidity was normal
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 15.3% of trading days, across 183 episodes with a typical run of 5 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Energy did best at +16.3% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +2.5%, against +17.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +56.1% | +12.3% | -1.1% | 62% | 15.8% | 109 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +36.4% | +5% | -7.1% | 57% | 15.9% | 150 |
| Energy XLE | +16.3% | +10.2% | +9.5% | 49% | 22.5% | 812 |
| Information Technology XLK | +13.1% | +12.4% | +6.3% | 53% | 29.1% | 812 |
| Industrials XLI | +11% | +9.4% | +4.2% | 51% | 19.9% | 812 |
| Financials XLF | +9.3% | +7.8% | +2.5% | 49% | 23.8% | 812 |
| Materials XLB | +6.6% | +8.5% | -0.2% | 50% | 22.3% | 812 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.9% | +8.5% | -0.9% | 50% | 19% | 812 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +4.2% | +10.4% | -2.6% | 51% | 22.3% | 812 |
| Utilities XLU | +3% | +5.4% | -3.8% | 51% | 17.2% | 812 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +2.5% | +5.3% | -4.3% | 50% | 16.6% | 812 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +17.2% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 16.1% | 1,351 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12% | +13.4% | +7.1% | 53% | 33.8% | 760 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +15.6% | +9.8% | +16.4% | 50% | 21.3% | 590 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +9.1% | +1% | -7.3% | 56% | 13.9% | 370 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +7.3% | +11.7% | -14.5% | 52% | 17.4% | 255 |
How this regime is defined
Market liquidity reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when liquidity was normal?
- Energy +16.3%, Information Technology +13.1%, Industrials +11%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +17.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 15.3% of trading days since 1983, in 183 separate episodes. The typical run is 5 sessions; the longest lasted 71 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Nov 28, 2025 – Dec 10, 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.