How US sectors performed when liquidity was normal
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 51.2% of trading days, across 21 episodes with a typical run of 83 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Materials did best at +10.6% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at +5.9%, against +8.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials XLB | +10.6% | +8.6% | +3% | 52% | 22.5% | 5,094 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +9.8% | +10.6% | +2.2% | 53% | 21.6% | 5,094 |
| Industrials XLI | +9.7% | +9.2% | +2.2% | 53% | 20.3% | 5,094 |
| Energy XLE | +9.7% | +10.1% | +2.1% | 52% | 25.6% | 5,094 |
| Information Technology XLK | +9.3% | +11.8% | +1.8% | 54% | 25.5% | 5,094 |
| Financials XLF | +8.9% | +7.9% | +1.4% | 51% | 25.5% | 5,094 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.1% | +8.8% | -1.5% | 52% | 17.2% | 5,094 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.1% | +5.7% | -1.5% | 53% | 17.9% | 5,094 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.9% | +5.6% | -1.7% | 52% | 14.7% | 5,094 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +4.1% | +11.3% | -3.2% | 53% | 23.1% | 1,264 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +0.5% | +5.5% | -8.6% | 52% | 19.4% | 1,942 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +8.7% | +10.1% | — | 54% | 18.1% | 5,403 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +9% | +12.9% | +1.6% | 54% | 26.1% | 5,081 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +8.1% | +9.6% | +0.8% | 53% | 22.4% | 4,911 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.4% | +1% | -11.6% | 51% | 14.1% | 4,465 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +10.8% | +11.4% | -0.1% | 54% | 17.8% | 3,883 |
How this regime is defined
Market liquidity reads Normal in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when liquidity was normal?
- Materials +10.6%, Consumer Discretionary +9.8%, Industrials +9.7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +8.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 51.2% of trading days since 1985, in 21 separate episodes. The typical run is 83 sessions; the longest lasted 1,532 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 24 Sep 2025 – 16 Sep 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.