How US sectors performed when the business cycle read moderate
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 1.9% of trading days, across 18 episodes with a typical run of 8 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Financials did best at +54% a year and Consumer Staples did worst at -9.7%, against +16% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials XLF | +54% | +7.8% | +38% | 54% | 25.1% | 213 |
| Information Technology XLK | +25% | +12.4% | +9.1% | 51% | 29.6% | 213 |
| Energy XLE | +24.3% | +10.2% | +8.3% | 52% | 28% | 213 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +22% | +10.4% | +6% | 51% | 24.1% | 213 |
| Materials XLB | +21.7% | +8.5% | +5.7% | 52% | 22.8% | 213 |
| Industrials XLI | +15.7% | +9.4% | -0.3% | 50% | 21.6% | 213 |
| Health Care XLV | +4.6% | +8.5% | -11.4% | 48% | 21.3% | 213 |
| Utilities XLU | +4% | +5.4% | -12% | 52% | 25.4% | 213 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -9.7% | +5.3% | -25.7% | 46% | 15.7% | 213 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | — | +12.3% | — | — | — | 1 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | — | +5% | — | — | — | 34 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +16% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 20.7% | 213 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +16.1% | +13.4% | +0.1% | 50% | 28.6% | 213 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +31.2% | +9.8% | +15.2% | 53% | 22% | 213 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -12.9% | +1% | -38.1% | 51% | 13.1% | 198 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -18.1% | +11.7% | -7.4% | 50% | 14.6% | 104 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Moderate in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read moderate?
- Financials +54%, Information Technology +25%, Energy +24.3%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +16%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 1.9% of trading days since 1983, in 18 separate episodes. The typical run is 8 sessions; the longest lasted 33 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jun 2, 2022 – Jun 2, 2022. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.