How US sectors performed when the business cycle read moderate
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 32.7% of trading days, across 5 episodes with a typical run of 818 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Utilities did best at +12.9% a year and Energy did worst at +6.8%, against +10.8% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +18.5% | +11.3% | +3.6% | 57% | 22.5% | 936 |
| Utilities XLU | +12.9% | +5.7% | +2.1% | 54% | 17.2% | 3,444 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +12.5% | +10.6% | +1.7% | 54% | 18.7% | 3,444 |
| Information Technology XLK | +11.9% | +11.8% | +1.1% | 55% | 23% | 3,444 |
| Industrials XLI | +11.3% | +9.2% | +0.5% | 54% | 18.1% | 3,444 |
| Health Care XLV | +10.9% | +8.8% | +0.2% | 53% | 15.9% | 3,444 |
| Materials XLB | +10.8% | +8.6% | +0.1% | 53% | 20.3% | 3,444 |
| Financials XLF | +10.6% | +7.9% | -0.1% | 53% | 20.9% | 3,444 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +7.9% | +5.6% | -2.9% | 52% | 13.4% | 3,444 |
| Energy XLE | +6.8% | +10.1% | -4% | 53% | 25.2% | 3,444 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +6.7% | +5.5% | -7.2% | 53% | 20.6% | 1,571 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +10.8% | +10.1% | — | 55% | 16.3% | 3,444 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +12% | +12.9% | +1.2% | 55% | 23.2% | 3,444 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +10.2% | +9.6% | -0.5% | 53% | 20.9% | 3,444 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +5.2% | +1% | -7.3% | 52% | 12.8% | 3,290 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.8% | +11.4% | +0.3% | 53% | 16.4% | 3,195 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Moderate in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read moderate?
- Utilities +12.9%, Consumer Discretionary +12.5%, Information Technology +11.9%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +10.8%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 32.7% of trading days since 1985, in 5 separate episodes. The typical run is 818 sessions; the longest lasted 1,111 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 10 Nov 2023 – 12 Sep 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.