How US sectors performed when the business cycle read slowing
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 8.8% of trading days, across 5 episodes with a typical run of 147 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Energy did best at +13.9% a year and Financials did worst at -8%, against +1.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy XLE | +13.9% | +10.1% | +12% | 53% | 26.4% | 925 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +10.5% | +5.6% | +8.6% | 52% | 14.9% | 925 |
| Health Care XLV | +7% | +8.8% | +5.1% | 50% | 17.6% | 925 |
| Materials XLB | +5% | +8.6% | +3.1% | 51% | 23.9% | 925 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +4.5% | +5.5% | -5.7% | 52% | 14.4% | 289 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +4.4% | +10.6% | +2.5% | 51% | 22.9% | 925 |
| Information Technology XLK | +4.2% | +11.8% | +2.3% | 53% | 26% | 925 |
| Industrials XLI | +2.2% | +9.2% | +0.3% | 52% | 21.9% | 925 |
| Utilities XLU | -2.8% | +5.7% | -4.7% | 52% | 16% | 925 |
| Financials XLF | -8% | +7.9% | -9.9% | 48% | 27.4% | 925 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -9.8% | +11.3% | -20% | 49% | 16.1% | 289 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +1.9% | +10.1% | — | 53% | 17.5% | 925 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +5.4% | +12.9% | +3.5% | 53% | 26.6% | 925 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +8.2% | +9.6% | +6.3% | 54% | 23.3% | 925 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -1.3% | +1% | -6.9% | 50% | 14.2% | 791 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.1% | +11.4% | +6.3% | 56% | 24.4% | 713 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Slowing in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read slowing?
- Energy +13.9%, Consumer Staples +10.5%, Health Care +7%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +1.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 8.8% of trading days since 1985, in 5 separate episodes. The typical run is 147 sessions; the longest lasted 290 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since 15 Sep 2025. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.