How US sectors performed when the business cycle read slowing
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 34.1% of trading days, across 67 episodes with a typical run of 21 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Health Care did best at +9.6% a year and Information Technology did worst at +2.7%, against +4.7% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +23.1% | +12.3% | +7.1% | 55% | 20.7% | 390 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +11.4% | +5% | -1.2% | 53% | 18.5% | 634 |
| Health Care XLV | +9.6% | +8.5% | +5.3% | 53% | 17.2% | 1,819 |
| Materials XLB | +7.7% | +8.5% | +3.4% | 53% | 20.9% | 1,819 |
| Energy XLE | +6.1% | +10.2% | +1.8% | 51% | 25.3% | 1,819 |
| Financials XLF | +5.9% | +7.8% | +1.6% | 52% | 23.4% | 1,819 |
| Industrials XLI | +5.7% | +9.4% | +1.4% | 54% | 18.2% | 1,819 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +4.9% | +10.4% | +0.6% | 53% | 19.9% | 1,819 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +4.1% | +5.3% | -0.2% | 51% | 14.3% | 1,819 |
| Utilities XLU | +3.9% | +5.4% | -0.4% | 52% | 18.4% | 1,819 |
| Information Technology XLK | +2.7% | +12.4% | -1.6% | 52% | 25.5% | 1,819 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +4.7% | +10.2% | — | 53% | 16.1% | 2,263 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +5.5% | +13.4% | +1.2% | 54% | 26.7% | 1,819 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +9.4% | +9.8% | +5.4% | 53% | 20.8% | 1,811 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | +4.6% | +1% | -3.3% | 52% | 13.1% | 1,588 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +8% | +11.7% | -0.4% | 50% | 18.7% | 1,349 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Slowing in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read slowing?
- Health Care +9.6%, Materials +7.7%, Energy +6.1%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +4.7%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 34.1% of trading days since 1983, in 67 separate episodes. The typical run is 21 sessions; the longest lasted 548 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen Jul 1, 2026 – Jul 30, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.