How US sectors performed when the business cycle read expansion
Since 2 Jan 1985, the record reads this regime on 17% of trading days, across 3 episodes with a typical run of 632 sessions. Across those sessions since 22 Dec 1998, Information Technology did best at +20.3% a year and Materials did worst at -2%, against +12.9% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of 6 Nov 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +20.3% | +11.8% | +12.9% | 54% | 26.9% | 1,292 |
| Energy XLE | +15.9% | +10.1% | +8.5% | 50% | 27.5% | 1,292 |
| Industrials XLI | +6.6% | +9.2% | -0.8% | 51% | 18.7% | 1,292 |
| Financials XLF | +5.3% | +7.9% | -2.1% | 49% | 23.7% | 1,292 |
| Health Care XLV | +5.3% | +8.8% | -2.1% | 50% | 18.5% | 1,292 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +4.8% | +10.6% | -2.6% | 51% | 24.7% | 1,292 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | -0.8% | +5.6% | -8.2% | 50% | 17.8% | 1,292 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | -1.7% | +11.3% | -5.5% | 50% | 24.2% | 632 |
| Utilities XLU | -1.9% | +5.7% | -9.3% | 50% | 19.2% | 1,292 |
| Materials XLB | -2% | +8.6% | -9.4% | 48% | 22.2% | 1,292 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | -5.3% | +5.5% | -9.7% | 51% | 21.1% | 675 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +12.9% | +10.1% | — | 51% | 19.4% | 1,790 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +22.7% | +12.9% | +16.5% | 53% | 31% | 1,240 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | -1.1% | +9.6% | -6.9% | 50% | 21.8% | 932 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -14.2% | +1% | -17.9% | 49% | 17.6% | 860 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | -1.9% | +11.4% | -5.6% | 49% | 13.9% | 860 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Expansion in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read expansion?
- Information Technology +20.3%, Energy +15.9%, Industrials +6.6%. Annualised mean next-session returns since 22 Dec 1998; the S&P 500 returned +12.9%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 17% of trading days since 1985, in 3 separate episodes. The typical run is 632 sessions; the longest lasted 930 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- No. It was last seen 10 May 2021 – 9 Nov 2023. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.