How US sectors performed when the business cycle read expansion
Since Jan 3, 1983, the record reads this regime on 47.5% of trading days, across 55 episodes with a typical run of 55 sessions. Across those sessions since Dec 22, 1998, Information Technology did best at +13.8% a year and Materials did worst at +5%, against +12.2% for the S&P 500.
Figures as of Sep 23, 2026 · recomputed every trading day
The regime in the record
Sector by sector
Annualised mean return on the session after each regime day. Sorted by the regime figure.
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology XLK | +13.8% | +12.4% | +5% | 55% | 23.5% | 3,518 |
| Energy XLE | +11.9% | +10.2% | +3.1% | 52% | 23.8% | 3,518 |
| Consumer Discretionary XLY | +8% | +10.4% | -0.9% | 53% | 19.9% | 3,518 |
| Industrials XLI | +7.7% | +9.4% | -1.1% | 53% | 16.6% | 3,518 |
| Communication Services XLCsince 2018 | +7.1% | +12.3% | -5.2% | 53% | 20.1% | 1,472 |
| Health Care XLV | +6.9% | +8.5% | -1.9% | 51% | 15.3% | 3,518 |
| Utilities XLU | +6.1% | +5.4% | -2.7% | 53% | 16.2% | 3,518 |
| Financials XLF | +5.4% | +7.8% | -3.4% | 51% | 19.8% | 3,518 |
| Consumer Staples XLP | +5.2% | +5.3% | -3.6% | 52% | 13.9% | 3,518 |
| Materials XLB | +5% | +8.5% | -3.8% | 51% | 19.6% | 3,518 |
| Real Estate XLREsince 2015 | +4% | +5% | -8.6% | 53% | 16.8% | 1,867 |
Context
| Asset | In this regime | All days | vs S&P 500 | Up sessions | Volatility | Sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 SPY | +12.2% | +10.2% | — | 54% | 15.7% | 4,563 |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQsince 1999 | +13.1% | +13.4% | +4.6% | 55% | 24.8% | 3,466 |
| Russell 2000 IWMsince 2000 | +6.5% | +9.8% | -2.2% | 53% | 19.6% | 3,166 |
| Long Treasuries TLTsince 2002 | -0.7% | +1% | -11.7% | 51% | 12.6% | 2,980 |
| Gold GLDsince 2004 | +12.6% | +11.7% | +0.6% | 54% | 16.6% | 2,753 |
How this regime is defined
Fundamental cycle reads Expansion in the daily regime record.
Method and limits
Descriptive statistics over the published regime record — not a backtest, a forecast or advice. Each regime day is credited with the NEXT session's return, so a regime never earns the move that revealed it. Returns are ETF price returns (dividends excluded), annualised as 252 × the mean session return; volatility likewise. Sector funds start in December 1998 (Real Estate in 2015, Communication Services in 2018); the regime record starts in 1980. Labels are the engine's as currently published and are recomputed when its method improves. A figure with fewer than 60 sessions is not shown.
This page's data as JSONQuestions
- Which sectors did best when the business cycle read expansion?
- Information Technology +13.8%, Energy +11.9%, Consumer Discretionary +8%. Annualised mean next-session returns since Dec 22, 1998; the S&P 500 returned +12.2%.
- How common is this regime, and how long does it last?
- It appears on 47.5% of trading days since 1983, in 55 separate episodes. The typical run is 55 sessions; the longest lasted 493 sessions.
- Is this regime in force today?
- Yes — in force since Jul 31, 2026. The daily nine-axis reading is on the Regime Radar.
- Is this a backtest?
- No. It describes how assets behaved on the session after each day the regime was read, with no portfolio, costs or selection. A backtest would test a rule; this records a history.